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Output Convergence and International Trade: Time-Series and Fuzzy Clustering Evidence for New Zealand and her Trading Partners, 1950 - 1992

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  • David EA Giles

Abstract

Using historical time-series data, we test for convergence and common trends in real per capita output for New Zealand and her four major trading partners. Both bivariate and multivariate time-series methods are used, and we also implement the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm as a new method for detecting convergence. The results of our time-series analysis accord with earlier studies - we find limited evidence of (only bivariate) convergence, but ample evidence of a small number of common trends. In contrast, our fuzzy clustering analysis reveals very strong evidence of a particular form of output convergence when the five trading countries are considered as a group.

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  • David EA Giles, 2005. "Output Convergence and International Trade: Time-Series and Fuzzy Clustering Evidence for New Zealand and her Trading Partners, 1950 - 1992," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 93-114.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:14:y:2005:i:1:p:93-114
    DOI: 10.1080/0963819042000333261
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    Cited by:

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    3. David Giles & Chad Stroomer, 2006. "Does Trade Openness Affect the Speed of Output Convergence? Some Empirical Evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 883-903, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; international trade; convergence; common trends; cointegration; fuzzy sets; pattern recognition; fuzzy c-means algorithm;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O0 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General

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