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Regional Trends in British Manufacturing Employment: Tests for Stationarity and Co-integration, 1952-1989

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  • Stanley Keil

Abstract

KEIL S. R. (1997) Regional trends in British manufacturing employment: tests for stationarity and co-integration, 1952-1989, Reg. Studies 31, 13-24. Using a shift-share accounting of 1952 to 1989 employment data from Great Britain's sub-national planning regions, this paper presents tests of the neoclassical hypothesis that employment shares return to a set of equilibrium values after random shocks. Contrary to the neoclassical hypothesis, the tests of stationarity and cointegration presented here strongly suggest that disturbances in shares are accumulative and permanent. Further, it is shown that models that posit that either shifts or shares follow random walks produce better post-sample predictions than do equilibrium models. KEIL S. R. (1997) Les tendances regionales dans l'emploi industriel en Grande-Bretagne: des tests de fixite et de cointegration sur la periode de 1952 a 1989, Reg. Studies 31, 13-24. A partir de la technique de repartition-redistribution cet article se sert des donnees sur l'emploi en Grande-Bretagne pour la periode de 1952 a 1989 afin de presenter des tests de l'hypothese neo-classique qui laisse supposer que la repartition de l'emploi retrouve l'equilibre apres des chocs au hasard. A l'encontre de l'hypothese neo-classique, les tests de fixite et de cointegration presentes ci-dessous laissent fortement supposer que de tels chocs influent sur la repartition de facon cumulative et permanente. En outre, on demontre que les modeles qui avancent que soit la redistribution, soit la repartition est au hasard, fournissent des previsions que ne le font les modeles d'equilibre. KEIL S. R. (1997) Regionale Tendenzen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt der herstellenden Industrie in Grossbritannien: Untersuchungen von Stillstand und Zusammenlegungen, Reg. Studies 31, 13-24. Unter Zuhilfenahme einer Shift/Share - Darlegung der Erwerbstatigkeitszahlen untergeordneter Planungsregionen Grossbritanniens im Zeitraum 1952-1989 legt dieser Aufsatz Untersuchungen der neo- klassischen Hypothese vor, dass Erwerbstatigkeitsanteile nach sie zufallig treffenden bosen Schlagen wieder zu ihren Gleichgewichtswerten zuruckfinden. Im Gegensatz zu der neo-klassischen Hypothese vertreten die hier vorgelegten Untersuchungen von Stillstand und Zusammenlegung die Ansicht, dass Storungen im Anteilsverhaltnis akkumulativer und dauer-hafter Natur sind. Daruberhinaus wird gezeigt, dass Modelle, die postulieren, dass entweder Verschiebungen oder Anteile Zufallswege beschreiten, bessere, nach Stichprobendurchfuhrung herausgegebene Vorhersagen bringen als Gleichgewichtsmodelle.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanley Keil, 1997. "Regional Trends in British Manufacturing Employment: Tests for Stationarity and Co-integration, 1952-1989," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 13-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:31:y:1997:i:1:p:13-24
    DOI: 10.1080/00343409750134755
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    Cited by:

    1. Stilianos Alexiadis & Konstantinos Eleftheriou & Peter Nijkamp, 2013. "Do Income Disparities dissipate across the US States? Experimenting with a Vector Error Correction Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-165/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Alexiadis, Stilianos & Eleftheriou, Konstantinos, 2010. "The Morphology of Income Convergence in US States: New Evidence using an Error-Correction-Model," MPRA Paper 20096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Michie, Jonathan & Sheehan, Maura, 1998. "The Political Economy of a Divided Ireland," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 22(2), pages 243-259, March.
    4. Chad R. Wilkerson & Megan D. Williams, 2012. "The transformation of manufacturing across Federal Reserve Districts: success for the Great Plains?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q II).

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