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SPEC model selection algorithm for ARCH models: an options pricing evaluation framework

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  • Stavros Degiannakis
  • Evdokia Xekalaki

Abstract

A number of single ARCH model-based methods of predicting volatility are compared to Degiannakis and Xekalaki's (2005) poly-model standardized prediction error criterion (SPEC) algorithm method in terms of profits from trading actual options of the S&P500 index returns. The results show that traders using the SPEC for deciding which model's forecasts to use at any given point in time achieve the highest profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Stavros Degiannakis & Evdokia Xekalaki, 2008. "SPEC model selection algorithm for ARCH models: an options pricing evaluation framework," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 419-423.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:raflxx:v:4:y:2008:i:6:p:419-423
    DOI: 10.1080/17446540701765258
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    1. Stavros Degiannakis & Evdokia Xekalaki, 2005. "Predictability and model selection in the context of ARCH models," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 55-82, January.
    2. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2007. "Assessing the Performance of a Prediction Error Criterion Model Selection Algorithm in the Context of ARCH Models," MPRA Paper 96324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Xekalaki, Evdokia & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2005. "Evaluating volatility forecasts in option pricing in the context of a simulated options market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 611-629, April.
    4. Heston, Steven L & Nandi, Saikat, 2000. "A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 585-625.
    5. Jin‐Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32, January.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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