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Validating Population Estimates for Harmonized Census Tract Data, 2000–2010

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  • John R. Logan
  • Brian J. Stults
  • Zengwang Xu

Abstract

Social scientists regularly rely on population estimates when studying change in small areas over time. Census tract data in the United States are a prime example, as there are substantial shifts in tract boundaries from decade to decade. This study compares alternative estimates of the 2000 population living within 2010 tract boundaries to the Census Bureau's own retabulation. All methods of estimation are subject to error; this is the first study to directly quantify the error in alternative interpolation methods for U.S. census tracts. A simple areal weighting method closely approximates the estimates provided by one standard source (the Neighborhood Change Data Base), with some improvement provided by considering only area not covered by water. More information is used by the Longitudinal Tract Data Base (LTDB), which relies on a combination of areal and population interpolation as well as ancillary data about water-covered areas. Another set of estimates provided by the National Historical Geographic Information Systems (NHGIS) uses data about land cover in 2001 and the current road network and distribution of population and housing units at the block level. Areal weighting alone results in a large error in a substantial share of tracts that were divided in complex ways. The LTDB and NHGIS perform much better in all situations but are subject to some error when boundaries of both tracts and their component blocks are redrawn. Users of harmonized tract data should be watchful for potential problems in either of these data sources.

Suggested Citation

  • John R. Logan & Brian J. Stults & Zengwang Xu, 2016. "Validating Population Estimates for Harmonized Census Tract Data, 2000–2010," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 106(5), pages 1013-1029, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:raagxx:v:106:y:2016:i:5:p:1013-1029
    DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2016.1187060
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    Cited by:

    1. Dionissi Aliprantis & Hal Martin & Kristen Tauber, 2020. "What Determines the Success of Housing Mobility Programs?," Working Papers 20-36R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 19 Oct 2022.
    2. Dionissi Aliprantis & Kristen Tauber, 2023. "Childhood Exposure to Violence and Nurturing Relationships: The Long-Run Effects on Black Men," Working Papers 23-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Dionissi Aliprantis & Hal Martin, 2020. "Neighborhood Sorting Obscures Neighborhood Effects in the Opportunity Atlas," Working Papers 20-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Gao, Xing & Thomas, Timothy A. & Morello-Frosch, Rachel & Allen, Amani M. & Snowden, Jonathan M. & Carmichael, Suzan L. & Mujahid, Mahasin S., 2023. "Neighborhood gentrification, displacement, and severe maternal morbidity in California," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    5. Megan Doherty Bea, 2024. "A Life Course Perspective of Community (Non)Investment: Historical Financial Service Trajectories and Community Outcomes," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 288-307, June.

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