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Investment decisions, net present value and bounded rationality

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  • Carlo Alberto Magni

Abstract

The Net Present Value maximizing model has a respectable ancestry and is considered by most scholars to be a theoretically sound decision model. In real-life applications, decision makers use the NPV rule, but apply a subjectively determined hurdle rate, as opposed to the 'correct' opportunity cost of capital. According to a heuristics-and-biases-program approach, this implies that the hurdle-rate rule is a biased heuristic. This work shows that the hurdle-rate rule may be interpreted as a fruitful strategy of bounded rationality, where several domain-specific and project-specific elements are integrated and condensed into an aspiration level. The paper also addresses the issue of a productive cooperation between bounded and unbounded rationality.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Alberto Magni, 2009. "Investment decisions, net present value and bounded rationality," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(8), pages 967-979.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:9:y:2009:i:8:p:967-979
    DOI: 10.1080/14697680902849338
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goetzmann, William N. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert (ed.), 2005. "The Origins of Value: The Financial Innovations that Created Modern Capital Markets," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195175714.
    2. Ekern, Steinar, 2006. "A Dozen Consistent CAPM-Related Valuation Models - So Why Use the Incorrect One?," Discussion Papers 2006/6, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science, revised 25 Apr 2007.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wonseong Kim & Choong Lyol Lee, 2024. "Bounded Rationality in Central Bank Communication," Papers 2411.04286, arXiv.org.
    2. Weber, Thomas A., 2014. "On the (non-)equivalence of IRR and NPV," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 25-39.
    3. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2010. "Average Internal Rate of Return and investment decisions: A new perspective," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0021, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    4. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2023. "The Split-Screen Approach for Project Appraisal (Part I: The Theory)," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-49, March.
    5. Marco Monti & Riccardo Boero & Nathan Berg & Gerd Gigerenzer & Laura Martignon, 2012. "How do common investors behave? Information search and portfolio choice among bank customers and university students," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 11(2), pages 203-233, December.
    6. E. M. Cervellati & P. Pattitoni & M. Savioli, 2016. "Cognitive Biases and Entrepreneurial Under-Diversification," Working Papers wp1076, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    7. Florian Fuchs & Volker Lingnau, 2024. "The Homo Economicus as a Prototype of a Psychopath? A Conceptual Analysis and Implications for Business Research and Teaching," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 195(4), pages 763-777, December.

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