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Conditional tail behaviour and Value at Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Bellini
  • Gianna Figa-talamanca

Abstract

In this paper we study the tail behaviour of eight major market indexes stratifying data according to the violation of a high threshold on the previous day. The distributional differences found can be exploited to improve VaR calculations in several settings, giving rise to what we call 'MCVaR'. We compare the performance of MCVaR with unconditioned VaR calculation methods and with GARCH VaR by means of several back-testing techniques that take into account not only the number of violations but also their magnitude and clustering.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Bellini & Gianna Figa-talamanca, 2007. "Conditional tail behaviour and Value at Risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 599-607.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:7:y:2007:i:6:p:599-607
    DOI: 10.1080/14697680601155516
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    Cited by:

    1. Gianna FigĂ -Talamanca & Marco Patacca, 2020. "Disentangling the relationship between Bitcoin and market attention measures," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(1), pages 71-91, March.
    2. Su, Jung-Bin & Lee, Ming-Chih & Chiu, Chien-Liang, 2014. "Why does skewness and the fat-tail effect influence value-at-risk estimates? Evidence from alternative capital markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 59-85.

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