IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/quantf/v24y2024i1p35-57.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deep attentive survival analysis in limit order books: estimating fill probabilities with convolutional-transformers

Author

Listed:
  • Álvaro Arroyo
  • Álvaro Cartea
  • Fernando Moreno-Pino
  • Stefan Zohren

Abstract

One of the key decisions in execution strategies is the choice between a passive (liquidity providing) or an aggressive (liquidity taking) order to execute a trade in a limit order book (LOB). Essential to this choice is the fill probability of a passive limit order placed in the LOB. This paper proposes a deep learning method to estimate the filltimes of limit orders posted in different levels of the LOB. We develop a novel model for survival analysis that maps time-varying features of the LOB to the distribution of filltimes of limit orders. Our method is based on a convolutional-Transformer encoder and a monotonic neural network decoder. We use proper scoring rules to compare our method with other approaches in survival analysis, and perform an interpretability analysis to understand the informativeness of features used to compute fill probabilities. Our method significantly outperforms those typically used in survival analysis literature. Finally, we carry out a statistical analysis of the fill probability of orders placed in the order book (e.g. within the bid-ask spread) for assets with different queue dynamics and trading activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvaro Arroyo & Álvaro Cartea & Fernando Moreno-Pino & Stefan Zohren, 2024. "Deep attentive survival analysis in limit order books: estimating fill probabilities with convolutional-transformers," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 35-57, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:24:y:2024:i:1:p:35-57
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2023.2286351
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14697688.2023.2286351
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/14697688.2023.2286351?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiwon Jung & Kiseop Lee, 2024. "Attention-Based Reading, Highlighting, and Forecasting of the Limit Order Book," Papers 2409.02277, arXiv.org.
    2. Weiguan Wang & Jia Xu, 2024. "Deep Learning Option Price Movement," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-17, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:24:y:2024:i:1:p:35-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.