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Modelling fundamental analysis in portfolio selection

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  • Huazhu Zhang
  • Cheng Yan

Abstract

We derive a closed-form appraisal/information ratio of the investors who are able to observe some information about security fundamentals, by solving a simple instantaneous mean-variance portfolio choice problem in a continuous-time framework. Both analytical and numerical results suggest that investors should choose securities with a more volatile mispricing, a less volatile fundamental, a higher mean-reverting speed and a larger dividend. Our model calibrated with realistic parameters easily outperforms top-percentile portfolio managers in reality, which suggests that the implementation of fundamental analysis may be impeded in practice due to limits of arbitrage. Our paper is a first, necessarily simple, step towards filling the gap of modelling fundamental analysis in portfolio selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Huazhu Zhang & Cheng Yan, 2018. "Modelling fundamental analysis in portfolio selection," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 1315-1326, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:18:y:2018:i:8:p:1315-1326
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2017.1418520
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiang, Yun & He, Jiaxuan, 2022. "Pairs trading and asset pricing," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Pier Francesco Procacci & Tomaso Aste, 2018. "Forecasting market states," Papers 1807.05836, arXiv.org, revised May 2019.
    3. Ren, Xiaohang & Zhang, Xiao & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and firm-level total factor productivity: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. D'Amico, Guglielmo & De Blasis, Riccardo, 2024. "Dividend based risk measures: A Markov chain approach," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 471(C).
    5. Qinkai Chen, 2021. "Stock Movement Prediction with Financial News using Contextualized Embedding from BERT," Papers 2107.08721, arXiv.org.

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