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Emigration intentions in a post-conflict environment: evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina

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  • Adnan Efendic

Abstract

In this study we analyse intentions to emigrate from Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), focusing not only on typical individual and household determinants, but also on post-conflict specific influences. We investigate cross-sectional survey data collected over the period from 2002 to 2010. Our findings indicate that higher intentions for emigration are indeed linked to the typical individual and household conditions: the young, educated and low-family income respondents report the highest intentions to emigrate. In addition, the post-conflict environment characterised by economic and political instability, as well as by conflict and post-conflict related migration, increases these intentions further, both independently and in different combinations. Although determinants such as employment status, household income and perception of economic development are relevant, their effect is of second-order importance. This contradicts the conventional thinking that economic factors are the main driving forces of emigration intentions. We provide evidence that the conflict and post-conflict related migration experiences, and the political situation, may surpass individual and societal economic influences in importance.

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  • Adnan Efendic, 2016. "Emigration intentions in a post-conflict environment: evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 335-352, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:28:y:2016:i:3:p:335-352
    DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2016.1166800
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    1. Adnan Efendic & Dejan Kovac & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2023. "Exposure to Conflict, Migrations and Long-run Education and Income Inequality: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(8), pages 1003-1017, November.
    2. Colin C. Williams & Adnan S. Efendic, 2020. "Evaluating the Relationship Between Migration and Participation in Undeclared Work: Lessons from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 592-606, December.
    3. Kotorri Mrika, 2017. "The probability of return conditional on migration duration: evidence from Kosovo," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 12(2), pages 35-46, December.
    4. Ziberi Besime & Alili Merita Zulfiu, 2021. "Economic Growth in the Western Balkans: A Panel Analysis," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 16(2), pages 68-81, December.
    5. Hurić-Bjelan Jasmina & Hadžiahmetović Azra, 2020. "External Debt in Bosnia and Herzegovina – An Empirical Analysis," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 70-82, December.
    6. Amr Abdelwahed & Anne Goujon & Leiwen Jiang, 2020. "The Migration Intentions of Young Egyptians," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-38, November.
    7. Jahić Hatidža & Hadžiahmetović-Milišić Nejra & Dedović Lejla & Kuloglija Emina, 2024. "Diagnosing the Issue: Understanding and Combating Medical Brain Drain in Bosnia and Herzegovina," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 70(2), pages 12-23.
    8. Kovac,Dejan & Efendic,Adnan & Shapiro,Jacob N., 2022. "Forced Displacement, Exposure to Conflict and Long-run Education and Income Inequality : Evidence from Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10021, The World Bank.
    9. World Bank, 2024. "International mobility as a development strategy," World Bank Publications - Reports 41925, The World Bank Group.
    10. Franc Sanja & Časni Anita Čeh & Barišić Antea, 2019. "Determinants of Migration Following the EU Enlargement: A Panel Data Analysis," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 14(2), pages 13-22, December.
    11. Parker Elliott, 2020. "Migration Patterns in Eastern Europe and the World: A Gravity Approach," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 66-79, June.

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