IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/pocoec/v18y2006i4p459-478.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Disinflationary Monetary Strategy and Instability of the Forward Yield Curve: The Case of the Czech Republic, 1999-2005

Author

Listed:
  • Karel Bruna

Abstract

In this study I describe the relationship between monetary policy and medium and long-term swap rates. I focus especially on explanation of the instability of the level and relations of swap and forward rates on the Czech swap market in the context of the Czech National Bank's (CNB) disinflation policy based on direct inflation targeting. Theoretically the main source of this problem is the inconsistency between the central bank's current and expected policy and the anticipated course of economic fundamentals. A common feature is that during disinflation the level of monetary policy restriction is not stable over time and is hard to predict for investors. Besides objective factors such as fluctuating economic growth or limited scope of information, this is also a result of the instability of sensitivity parameters of the central bank's reaction function and of the character of the monetary strategy pursued. Empirical analysis showed a limited effect of changes in the CNB repo rate on the instantaneous adaptation of swap and forward rates. In addition, problems connected with the CNB's weakened credibility were immediately identified, along with related erroneous expectations of investors. I interpret the instability of relations as evidence of differences in investors' inflation predictions of a gradual tendency for the economy to reach a state of low inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Karel Bruna, 2006. "Disinflationary Monetary Strategy and Instability of the Forward Yield Curve: The Case of the Czech Republic, 1999-2005," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 459-478.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:18:y:2006:i:4:p:459-478
    DOI: 10.1080/14631370601008613
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14631370601008613
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/14631370601008613?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marvin Goodfriend, 1998. "Using the term structure of interest rates for monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 13-30.
    2. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1594-1607, December.
    3. Yash P. Mehra, 1996. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-49.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jennifer E. Roush, 2001. "Evidence uncovered: long-term interest rates, monetary policy, and the expectations theory," International Finance Discussion Papers 712, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kristoffer Nimark, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Real-time Signal Extraction from the Bond Market," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Nimark, Kristoffer, 2008. "Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1389-1400, November.
    6. Kulish Mariano, 2007. "Should Monetary Policy Use Long-Term Rates?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, July.
    7. Karel Brůna, 2007. "Měnová politika, změny trendové inflace a nestabilita úrokových relací: analýza dynamiky dlouhodobých úrokových sazeb v kontextu změn repo sazby české národní banky [Monetary policy, trend inflatio," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(1), pages 3-22.
    8. Berument, Hakan & Froyen, Richard T., 2006. "Monetary policy and long-term US interest rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 737-751, December.
    9. Valente, Giorgio, 2009. "International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 920-940, October.
    10. Giorgio Valente, 2005. "US Monetary Policy Announcements and the Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore," Working Papers 092005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    11. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    12. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2010. "Do Markets Care Who Chairs the Central Bank?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 347-371, March.
    13. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    14. Alex Isakov & Petr Grishin & Oleg Gorlinsky, 2018. "Fear of Forward Guidance," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 84-106, December.
    15. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey, 2015. "Can monetary policy surprise the market?," CAMA Working Papers 2015-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Should central banks be more aggressive?," Working Paper Series 84, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Edward N Gamber & Julie K Smith, 2020. "Monetary policy and the yield curve," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 407-424.
    18. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2017. "The asymptotic behaviour of the residual sum of squares in models with multiple break points," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 667-698, October.
    19. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 2014. "Anchoring expectations of inflation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 86-105.
    20. Leombroni, Matteo & Vedolin, Andrea & Venter, Gyuri & Whelan, Paul, 2021. "Central bank communication and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 860-880.
    21. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The asymmetric impact of macroeconomic announcements on U.S. Government bond rate level and volatility," MPRA Paper 5381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Ryo Kato & Yoshifumi Hisata, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Market Interest Rates," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-7, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:18:y:2006:i:4:p:459-478. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CPCE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.