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Testing overconfidence bias in Pakistani stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Lubna Zia
  • Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu
  • Shujahat Haider Hashmi

Abstract

Excessive trading phenomenon is contrary to the concept of traditional finance that is based on the rational expectation theorem and efficient market hypothesis. Therefore, this study is aimed at exploring the existence of overconfidence behavior in the stock market. The market-wide panel VAR model is used to investigate the lead–lag relationship between stock returns and turnover. Our results suggest that investors are overconfident in Pakistani stock market because turnover depends directly upon stock returns. The findings have important implications for investors and brokers for developing appropriate trading strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lubna Zia & Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu & Shujahat Haider Hashmi, 2017. "Testing overconfidence bias in Pakistani stock market," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1289656-128, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:5:y:2017:i:1:p:1289656
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2017.1289656
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. KENT D. DANIEL & David Hirshleifer & AVANIDHAR SUBRAHMANYAM, 2004. "A Theory of Overconfidence, Self-Attribution, and Security Market Under- and Over-reactions," Finance 0412006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chuang, Wen-I & Susmel, Rauli, 2011. "Who is the more overconfident trader? Individual vs. institutional investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1626-1644, July.
    5. Nuttawat Visaltanachoti & Hang Luo & Lin Lu, 2007. "Holding periods, illiquidity and disposition effect in the Chinese stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(15), pages 1265-1274.
    6. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    7. Mouna Abbes, 2013. "Does Overconfidence Bias Explain Volatility During the Global Financial Crisis?," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 291-312, February.
    8. Meir Statman & Steven Thorley & Keith Vorkink, 2006. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1531-1565.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nishwa Iqbal Dar & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah & Zeeshan Ahmed, 2021. "Behavioral Cost of Managerial Decisions Under Risk Perception and Culture: A Comparative Study Between the United States and Pakistan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    2. Kouamé Marcel ANZIAN & Paul Vivien OYIBO & Koffi Mouroufie Emmanuel DJEBAN & Ebi Georges FOSSOU, 2023. "The effect of overconfidence behaviour on stock market volatility in Belgium," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(636), A), pages 131-146, Autumn.
    3. repec:gei:journl:v:2:y:2017:i:2:p:145-164 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Carrasco-Garcés, Moisés & Vásquez-Lavín, Felipe & Ponce Oliva, Roberto D. & Diaz Pincheira, Francisco & Barrientos, Manuel, 2021. "Estimating the implicit discount rate for new technology adoption of wood-burning stoves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Md Qamar Azam & Nazia Iqbal Hashmi & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Md Shabbir Alam & Mirza Allim Baig, 2022. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Overconfidence Bias: The Case of Cyclical and Defensive Sectors," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Jitender Kumar & Neha Prince, 2022. "Overconfidence bias in the Indian stock market in diverse market situations: an empirical study," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(6), pages 3031-3047, December.
    7. Muhammad Anwar, Sher Zaman Khan, Amin Ur Rehman, 2017. "Financial Literacy, Behavioral Biases and Investor's Portfolio Diversification: Empirical Study of an Emerging Stock Market," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(2), pages 144-163, October.

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