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Using validated measures of high school academic achievement to predict university success

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  • Kamakshi Singh
  • Tim Maloney

Abstract

Administrative data from a New Zealand university are used to validate the National Certificate of Educational Achievement (NCEA) Rank Score used in university admissions and scholarship decisions. We find no statistical evidence to corroborate the specific weighting scheme used in this index. For example, our regression analysis suggests that too much weight is attached to the lowest category of credits in predicting both successful completion outcomes and letter grades. To show the potential importance of this validated measure of high school achievement, we run several simulations on these first-year student outcomes at this university. We show that the use of an alternative, empirically-validated measure of NCEA results to select students would lead to only slight improvements in course completion rates and letter grades. These higher entry standards would lead to declines in the proportions of Pacifica students, but minimal impacts on the proportion of Māori students enrolled at this university.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamakshi Singh & Tim Maloney, 2019. "Using validated measures of high school academic achievement to predict university success," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(1), pages 89-106, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:53:y:2019:i:1:p:89-106
    DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2017.1419502
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    Cited by:

    1. Matilde Reséndiz-Castro & Rosalba Zepeda-Bautista & Ignacio Enrique Peón-Escalante, 2022. "Transdisciplinary Cyber-systemic Design of Instruments to Measure Academic Performance in Middle and Higher Education Systems," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 395-440, June.

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