IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/mpopst/v16y2009i2p105-130.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian Adjustment of Anticipatory Covariates in Analyzing Retrospective Data

Author

Listed:
  • GEBRENEGUS GHILAGABER
  • JOHAN KOSKINEN

Abstract

In retrospective surveys, records on important variables such as the respondent's educational level and social class refer to what is achieved by the date of the survey. Such variables are then used as covariates in investigations of behavior such as marriage and divorce in life segments that have occurred before the survey. To what extent can any change in the behavior be attributed to the misclassification of respondents across the various levels of the anticipatory variable? To what extent do they reflect real differences in the behavior across the levels? The connection is obtained by a Bayesian adjustment, by specifying a continuous-time Markov model for the incompletely observed time-varying anticipatory covariates, and by implementing standard Bayesian data augmentation techniques. The issues are illustrated by estimating effects of educational level on risks of divorce in a multiplicative piecewise-constant hazard model. Results show that ignoring the time-inconsistency of anticipatory variables may seriously plague the analyses because the relative risks across the anticipatory educational level are overestimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebrenegus Ghilagaber & Johan Koskinen, 2009. "Bayesian Adjustment of Anticipatory Covariates in Analyzing Retrospective Data," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 105-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:105-130
    DOI: 10.1080/08898480902790171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480902790171
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/08898480902790171?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(16), pages 461-484.
    2. Arulampalam, Wiji & Bhalotra, Sonia R., 2006. "Sibling Death Clustering in India: State Dependence vs. Unobserved Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 2251, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Øystein Kravdal, 2004. "An Illustration of the Problems Caused by Incomplete Education Histories in Fertility Analyses," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(6), pages 135-154.
    4. Wiji Arulampalam & Sonia Bhalotra, 2006. "Sibling death clustering in India: state dependence versus unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(4), pages 829-848, October.
    5. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela R. Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 2: Marriage and first birth," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(17), pages 485-498.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pina-Sánchez Jose & Koskinen Johan & Plewis Ian, 2019. "Adjusting for Measurement Error in Retrospectively Reported Work Histories: An Analysis Using Swedish Register Data," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 35(1), pages 203-229, March.
    2. Gebrenegus Ghilagaber & Rolf Larsson, 2023. "Adjustment of Anticipatory Covariates in Retrospective Surveys: An Expected Likelihood Approach," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-19, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cordula Zabel, 2009. "Do imputed education histories provide satisfactory results in fertility analysis in the Western German context?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(6), pages 135-176.
    2. Cornelia Muresan & Jan M. Hoem, 2010. "The negative educational gradients in Romanian fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(4), pages 95-114.
    3. Roberto Impicciatore & Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna, 2017. "The impact of education on fertility in Italy. Changes across cohorts and south–north differences," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 2293-2317, September.
    4. Martin Klesment & Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Luule Sakkeus, 2014. "Varying association between education and second births in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(27), pages 813-860.
    5. Marika Jalovaara & Gerda Neyer & Gunnar Andersson & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Peter Fallesen & Trude Lappegård, 2019. "Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 563-586, July.
    6. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Eva Beaujouan & Kryštof Zeman, 2022. "Is Two Still Best? Change in Parity-Specific Fertility Across Education in Low-Fertility Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 2085-2114, October.
    7. Nadja Milewski, 2010. "Immigrant fertility in West Germany: Is there a socialization effect in transitions to second and third births? [Fécondité des immigrées en Allemagne de l’Ouest: existe-t-il un effet de la socializ," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 297-323, August.
    8. Anna Matysiak & Daniele Vignoli, 2013. "Diverse Effects of Women’s Employment on Fertility: Insights From Italy and Poland," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 273-302, August.
    9. Jarl E. Mooyaart & Aart C. Liefbroer, 2016. "The Influence of Parental Education on Timing and Type of Union Formation: Changes Over the Life Course and Over Time in the Netherlands," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(4), pages 885-919, August.
    10. Jona Schellekens & David Gliksberg, 2018. "The Decline in Marriage in Israel, 1960–2007: Period or Cohort Effect?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 119-142, February.
    11. John Ermisch & Fiona Steele, 2016. "Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(54), pages 1561-1584.
    12. Dorothea Rieck, 2006. "Transition to second birth - the case of Russia," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. David Clifford, 2009. "Spousal separation, selectivity and contextual effects: exploring the relationship between international labour migration and fertility in post-Soviet Tajikistan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(32), pages 945-975.
    14. Martin Klesment & Allan Puur, 2010. "Effects of education on second births before and after societal transition: Evidence from the Estonian GGS," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(28), pages 891-932.
    15. Eleonora Mussino & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2008. "Fertility of migrants: a comparative study between Italy and Russia," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    16. Setsuya Fukuda, 2009. "Shifting economic foundation of marriage in Japan: the erosion of traditional marriage," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-033, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    17. Kryštof Zeman, 2007. "Transition of nuptiality and fertility onset in the Czech Republic since the 1990s: the role of women’s education and its expansion," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-017, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Cornelia Mureşan & Jan M. Hoem, 2009. "The negative educational gradients in Romanian fertility," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-019, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    19. Jan M. Hoem & Dora Kostova & Aiva Jasilioniene & Cornelia Mureşan, 2009. "Traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Four Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Union Formation as a Demographic Manifestation," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(3), pages 239-255, August.
    20. Judith C. Koops & Aart C. Liefbroer & Anne H. Gauthier, 2021. "Socio-Economic Differences in the Prevalence of Single Motherhood in North America and Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 825-849, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:105-130. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/GMPS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.