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The dangers of conditioning on the time of occurrence of one demographic process in the analysis of another

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  • Jan M. Hoem

Abstract

In studies of the fertility of migrants in which the data are confined to the migrants only, estimation bias will normally appear in comparisons of childbearing before and after migration. The same issue arises in studies of union formation before and after first birth, marriage formation before and after home purchase, and in any other comparison of behaviour before and after an index event if one confines the study only to those who have experienced the index event. It is normally better to avoid analysis of behaviour before the index event because such analysis actually conditions on the later arrival of the index event. In this paper, we provide graphical and mathematical representations of this problem and show how one can get a meaningful (unconditional) comparison of behaviour before and after the index event provided the data contain enough information for both sub-periods. Otherwise, the analyst should refrain from making a comparison of this nature.

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  • Jan M. Hoem, 2014. "The dangers of conditioning on the time of occurrence of one demographic process in the analysis of another," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(2), pages 151-159, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:151-159
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.843019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Courgeau, Daniel & Lelievre, Eva, 1993. "Event History Analysis in Demography," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287384.
    2. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(16), pages 461-484.
    3. Hill Kulu & Nadja Milewski, 2007. "Family change and migration in the life course," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(19), pages 567-590.
    4. Jan M. Hoem & Lesia Nedoluzhko, 2008. "Marriage formation as a process intermediary between migration and childbearing," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Hill Kulu, 2005. "Migration and Fertility: Competing Hypotheses Re-examined," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 51-87, March.
    6. Jan M. Hoem & Lesia Nedoluzhko, 2008. "Marriage formation as a process intermediary between migration and childbearing," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(21), pages 611-628.
    7. repec:cai:poeine:pope_703_0351 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lesia Nedoluzhko & Gunnar Andersson, 2007. "Migration and first-time parenthood," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(25), pages 741-774.
    9. Clara H. Mulder & Michael Wagner, 1998. "First-time Home-ownership in the Family Life Course: A West German-Dutch Comparison," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 687-713, April.
    10. Laura E. Hill & Hans P. Johnson, 2004. "Fertility Changes Among Immigrants: Generations, Neighborhoods, and Personal Characteristics," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 85(3), pages 811-827, September.
    11. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela R. Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 2: Marriage and first birth," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Hill Kulu & Andres Vikat, 2007. "Fertility differences by housing type," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(26), pages 775-802.
    13. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(17), pages 485-498.
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    Cited by:

    1. Livia Ortensi, 2015. "Engendering the fertility-migration nexus: The role of women's migratory patterns in the analysis of fertility after migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(53), pages 1435-1468.
    2. Roberto Impicciatore & Giuseppe Gabrielli & Anna Paterno, 2020. "Migrants’ Fertility in Italy: A Comparison Between Origin and Destination," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(4), pages 799-825, September.
    3. James Robards & Ann Berrington, 2016. "The fertility of recent migrants to England and Wales," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(36), pages 1037-1052.
    4. Katharina Wolf, 2016. "Marriage Migration Versus Family Reunification: How Does the Marriage and Migration History Affect the Timing of First and Second Childbirth Among Turkish Immigrants in Germany?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 731-759, December.

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