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The modelling of dry bulk and tanker markets: a survey

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  • D. R. Glen

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the development of the quantitative modelling techniques that have been applied to the analysis of dry bulk shipping markets. Of necessity it will be dated by the time it is published. The principal points that emerge from the survey are fourfold: first:-reduced form rather than structural modelling, has become the standard approach in the past 15 years. Second, there is a greater focus on modelling rate variability rather than rate levels, using models that estimate the behaviour of both the conditional mean freight rate and its conditional variance. Third, the introduction of models of financial derivatives and their application to shipping markets has been very marked, as finance models of risk management have been adapted to shipping markets. Fourth, the use of segmented models of different ship types, and higher frequency data is now standard. It is argued that the relative neglect of structural models means that estimating fully specified structural econometric models may be a fruitful research agenda for the future.

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  • D. R. Glen, 2006. "The modelling of dry bulk and tanker markets: a survey," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 431-445.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:33:y:2006:i:5:p:431-445
    DOI: 10.1080/03088830601020562
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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Wang, Jun & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Assessing the extreme risk spillovers of international commodities on maritime markets: A GARCH-Copula-CoVaR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Yang, Zhongzhen & Jiang, Zhenfeng & Notteboom, Theo & Haralambides, Hercules, 2019. "The impact of ship scrapping subsidies on fleet renewal decisions in dry bulk shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 177-189.
    3. Theocharis, Dimitrios & Pettit, Stephen & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Haider, Jane, 2018. "Arctic shipping: A systematic literature review of comparative studies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-128.
    4. Koichiro Hayashi, 2020. "Stationarity of spot freight rates considering supply/demand effect," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Dinwoodie, John & Tuck, Sarah & Rigot-Müller, Patrick, 2013. "Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 553-561.
    6. Zheng, Shiyuan & Lan, Xiangang, 2016. "Multifractal analysis of spot rates in tanker markets and their comparisons with crude oil markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 547-559.
    7. Goulas, Lambros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Are freight futures markets efficient? Evidence from IMAREX," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 644-659.
    8. Ko, Byoung-Wook, 2018. "Dynamic patterns of dry bulk freight spot rates through the lens of a time-varying coefficient model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 319-330.
    9. Dinwoodie, John & Landamore, Melanie & Rigot-Muller, Patrick, 2014. "Dry bulk shipping flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of early career specialists," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 64-75.

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