IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v88y2014icp64-75.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dry bulk shipping flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of early career specialists

Author

Listed:
  • Dinwoodie, John
  • Landamore, Melanie
  • Rigot-Muller, Patrick

Abstract

This paper aims to synthesize the perceptions of early career specialists regarding trends in dry bulk shipping flows to 2050, the ship type which generates the second highest total volume of carbon emissions. Specialists' insights have implications for formulating polices to manage global trade and shipping emissions. Established Delphi survey techniques achieved consensus in a novel long-term industrial context amongst international panelists with long-term industrial commitment, highlighting trends in drivers including Arctic ice melt, canal upgrades, piracy and mode splits. Globally, expected doubling of raw materials shipments to Western economies and quadrupling elsewhere will be partially offset by specialists' perceptions of shorter hauls. Moderate annual expected tonnage growth globally compares with rapid annual growth in coal shipments, although more localized and multi-sourcing will shorten global coal hauls. After 2030, ocean routing is expected to slightly shorten global hauls. Climate change brings both Arctic ice melt with shorter expected average hauls from Northeast Asia to Western Europe and longer hauls elsewhere as more droughts and failed states force ship re-routing to avoid piracy. Canal upgrades will offer shorter average hauls. Within the UK rising expected demand for biofuels and intolerance of fossil fuels will reduce shipping demand, inviting investigation of a systems approach to planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinwoodie, John & Landamore, Melanie & Rigot-Muller, Patrick, 2014. "Dry bulk shipping flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of early career specialists," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 64-75.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:88:y:2014:i:c:p:64-75
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.06.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514002005
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.06.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lun, Y.H. Venus & Lai, Kee-hung & Cheng, T.C. Edwin, 2013. "An evaluation of green shipping networks to minimize external cost in the Pearl River Delta region," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 320-328.
    2. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Knapp, Sabine, 2009. "Analysis of ship life cycles--The impact of economic cycles and ship inspections," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 350-369, March.
    3. Tamvakis, Michael N. & Thanopoulou, Helen A., 2000. "Does quality pay? The case of the dry bulk market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 297-307, December.
    4. Michael R Czinkota & Ilkka A Ronkainen, 1997. "International Business and Trade in the Next Decade: Report from a Delphi Study," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 28(4), pages 827-844, December.
    5. Bilgen, Bilge & Ozkarahan, Irem, 2007. "A mixed-integer linear programming model for bulk grain blending and shipping," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 555-571, June.
    6. Pätäri, Satu & Puumalainen, Kaisu & Jantunen, Ari & Sandstrüm, Jaana, 2011. "The interface of the energy and forest sectors--Potential players in the bioenergy business," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 322-332, May.
    7. Jérôme Verny & Christophe Grigentin, 2009. "Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route," Post-Print hal-00568193, HAL.
    8. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Darkow, Inga-Lena, 2010. "Scenarios for the logistics services industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 46-59, September.
    9. Cimen Karatas Cetin & A. Güldem Cerit, 2010. "Organizational effectiveness at seaports: a systems approach," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 195-219, May.
    10. Shih, Li-Hsing, 1997. "Planning of fuel coal imports using a mixed integer programming method," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 243-249, September.
    11. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Alizadeh-M, Amir H., 2001. "Seasonality patterns in dry bulk shipping spot and time charter freight rates," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 443-467, December.
    12. Risto Laulajainen, 2006. "A static theory of dry bulk freight rates by route," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 447-461.
    13. Piecyk, Maja I. & McKinnon, Alan C., 2010. "Forecasting the carbon footprint of road freight transport in 2020," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 31-42, November.
    14. Roberta Scarsi, 2007. "The bulk shipping business: market cycles and shipowners’ biases," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 577-590, December.
    15. Markmann, Christoph & Darkow, Inga-Lena & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2013. "A Delphi-based risk analysis — Identifying and assessing future challenges for supply chain security in a multi-stakeholder environment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(9), pages 1815-1833.
    16. Verny, Jerome & Grigentin, Christophe, 2009. "Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 107-117, November.
    17. Parsons, James & Dinwoodie, John & Roe, Michael, 2011. "Northern opportunities: A strategic review of Canada's Arctic icebreaking services," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 549-556, July.
    18. Shun Chen & Koos Frouws & Eddy Van de Voorde, 2010. "Technical changes and impacts on economic performance of dry bulk vessels," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 305-327, May.
    19. Lai, Kee-hung & Wong, Christina W.Y. & Cheng, T.C.E., 2012. "Ecological modernisation of Chinese export manufacturing via green logistics management and its regional implications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(4), pages 766-770.
    20. D. R. Glen, 2006. "The modelling of dry bulk and tanker markets: a survey," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 431-445.
    21. Dewan M. Z. Islam & John Dinwoodie & M. Roe, 2006. "Promoting Development through Multimodal Freight Transport in Bangladesh," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 571-591, January.
    22. Steve Engelen & Wout Dullaert & Bert Vernimmen, 2007. "Multi-Agent Adaptive Systems in Dry Bulk Shipping," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 377-389, May.
    23. von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2012. "Consensus measurement in Delphi studies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 1525-1536.
    24. Dinwoodie, John & Tuck, Sarah & Rigot-Müller, Patrick, 2013. "Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 553-561.
    25. Marlow, Peter B & Gardner, Bernard, 1980. "Some Thoughts on the Dry Bulk Shipping Sector," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 71-84, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Spaniol, Matthew J. & Rowland, Nicholas J., 2022. "Business ecosystems and the view from the future: The use of corporate foresight by stakeholders of the Ro-Ro shipping ecosystem in the Baltic Sea Region," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Yang, Dong & Zhang, Lingge & Luo, Meifeng & Li, Feng, 2020. "Does shipping market affect international iron ore trade?– An equilibrium analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Kopyto, Matthias & Lechler, Sabrina & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hartmann, Evi, 2020. "Potentials of blockchain technology in supply chain management: Long-term judgments of an international expert panel," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Billig, Eric & Thrän, Daniela, 2016. "Evaluation of biomethane technologies in Europe – Technical concepts under the scope of a Delphi-Survey embedded in a multi-criteria analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1176-1186.
    5. Kei Kanamoto & Liwen Murong & Minato Nakashima & Ryuichi Shibasaki, 2021. "Can maritime big data be applied to shipping industry analysis? Focussing on commodities and vessel sizes of dry bulk carriers," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(2), pages 211-236, June.
    6. Pache, Hannah & Grafelmann, Michaela & Schwientek, Anne Kathrina & Jahn, Carlos, 2020. "Tactical planning in tramp shipping - A literature review," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Jahn, Carlos & Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Data Science in Maritime and City Logistics: Data-driven Solutions for Logistics and Sustainability. Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conferen, volume 30, pages 281-308, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dinwoodie, John & Tuck, Sarah & Rigot-Müller, Patrick, 2013. "Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 553-561.
    2. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    3. Theocharis, Dimitrios & Pettit, Stephen & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Haider, Jane, 2018. "Arctic shipping: A systematic literature review of comparative studies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-128.
    4. Engelke, Henning & Mauksch, Stefanie & Darkow, Inga-Lena & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2015. "Opportunities for social enterprise in Germany — Evidence from an expert survey," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 635-646.
    5. Schlecht, Laura & Schneider, Sabrina & Buchwald, Arne, 2021. "The prospective value creation potential of Blockchain in business models: A delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    6. Tuomas Kiiski & Tomi Solakivi & Juuso Töyli & Lauri Ojala, 2018. "Long-term dynamics of shipping and icebreaker capacity along the Northern Sea Route," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(3), pages 375-399, September.
    7. Spickermann, Alexander & Grienitz, Volker & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Heading towards a multimodal city of the future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 201-221.
    8. Bokrantz, Jon & Skoogh, Anders & Berlin, Cecilia & Stahre, Johan, 2017. "Maintenance in digitalised manufacturing: Delphi-based scenarios for 2030," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 154-169.
    9. Tran, Nguyen Khoi & Haasis, Hans-Dietrich, 2015. "An empirical study of fleet expansion and growth of ship size in container liner shipping," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 241-253.
    10. Di Zio, Simone & Bolzan, Mario & Marozzi, Marco, 2021. "Classification of Delphi outputs through robust ranking and fuzzy clustering for Delphi-based scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    11. repec:ddj:parsro:y:2014:i:2:p:57-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Olli-Pekka Hilmola & Weidong Li, 2023. "Drivers of railway container transports between China and Finland," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, December.
    13. Zhi Heng & Tsz Leung Yip, 2018. "Impacts of Kra Canal and its toll structures on tanker traffic," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 125-139, January.
    14. Christoph Markmann & Alexander Spickermann & Heiko A. von der Gracht & Alexander Brem, 2021. "Improving the question formulation in Delphi‐like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), March.
    15. Zhang, Yuxin & Xu, Dafeng, 2023. "Service on the rise, agriculture and manufacturing in decline: The labor market effects of high-speed rail services in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    16. Lasserre, Frédéric & Pelletier, Sébastien, 2011. "Polar super seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: an analysis of shipowners’ intentions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1465-1473.
    17. Tobias Meyer & Heiko A. von der Gracht & Evi Hartmann, 2022. "Technology foresight for sustainable road freight transportation: Insights from a global real‐time Delphi study," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    18. Yang, Zhongzhen & Jiang, Zhenfeng & Notteboom, Theo & Haralambides, Hercules, 2019. "The impact of ship scrapping subsidies on fleet renewal decisions in dry bulk shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 177-189.
    19. Junseung Kim & Kyungku Kim & Kum Fai Yuen & Keun-Sik Park, 2020. "Cost and Scenario Analysis of Intermodal Transportation Routes from Korea to the USA: After the Panama Canal Expansion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-20, August.
    20. Frevel, Nicolas & Beiderbeck, Daniel & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2022. "The impact of technology on sports – A prospective study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    21. Belton, Ian & MacDonald, Alice & Wright, George & Hamlin, Iain, 2019. "Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: A six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 72-82.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:88:y:2014:i:c:p:64-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.