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Assessing exchange rate dynamics of East Africa: fragmented or integrated?

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  • Masafumi Yabara

Abstract

This article investigates the dynamics of the currency markets of the East African Community, using forecast error variance decompositions from vector autoregressions. It shows that the exchange rates of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda have been mainly driven by shocks to their own economies, while those of Burundi and Rwanda have been increasingly dictated by spillovers from the dollar and euro since the global financial crisis. Interactions within the region are limited, although there is some sign of elevation. This makes a clear contrast with European currency markets prior to the euro, where spillovers from the German mark dominated the markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Masafumi Yabara, 2014. "Assessing exchange rate dynamics of East Africa: fragmented or integrated?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 154-174, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:7:y:2014:i:1:p:154-174
    DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2013.831367
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    2. Christopher S. Adam & Pantaleo Kessy & Camillus Kombe & Stephen O’Connell, 2012. "Exchange Rate Arrangements in the Transition to East African Monetary Union," CSAE Working Paper Series 2012-07, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil‐Alana, 2020. "Prospects for a Monetary Union in the East Africa Community: Some Empirical Evidence," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 174-185, June.

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