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A stochastic model of cyber attacks with imperfect detection

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  • Rui Fang
  • Xiaohu Li

Abstract

This paper introduces a cyber security model with imperfect detection, in which one attacker launches multiple attacks against the target with adjusted strength based on the previous attacking outcome. Several sufficient conditions leading to the usual stochastic order on the first time to observe a truly compromised target, to observe a successful attack and to compromise the target are developed, respectively. The probability for the target to be truly compromised before observing some number of successful attacks is proved to increase (decrease) in the attacking (defense) strength. Monte Carlo simulations are also conducted to empirically illustrate the theoretical results.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Fang & Xiaohu Li, 2020. "A stochastic model of cyber attacks with imperfect detection," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 2158-2175, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:lstaxx:v:49:y:2020:i:9:p:2158-2175
    DOI: 10.1080/03610926.2019.1568489
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. K Hausken & G Levitin, 2009. "Parallel systems with different types of defence resource expenditure under two sequential attacks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 223(1), pages 71-85, March.
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