The virtuous circle in disaster recovery: who returns and stays in town after disaster evacuation?

Given the importance of encouraging residents of a disaster-stricken community to remain there during the recovery process, this paper examines the determinants of disaster evacuee decisions to return to their communities, and if they return, to stay in the community where they lived before the disaster. The data come from two panel surveys of Hurricane Katrina survivors. The surveys were taken in 2005, just after Katrina, and again in 2006, a year after the disaster. Although the study sample is not indicative of the pre-Katrina population of New Orleans, it is of great value in allowing us to understand the behaviors of disaster survivors and in helping to design disaster recovery plans. Analytical results show that government performance in initial disaster recovery and individual perceptions of future lives in the community play an important role in evacuees' decisions of whether to stay in the pre-Katrina communities. Race, risk, and damage done are also valid predictors of return decisions. This finding emphasizes the importance of both governmental initial response to the disaster and effective communication of a clear vision toward a fully recovered community.