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Natural frequencies and Bayesian reasoning: the impact of formal education and problem context

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  • Michael Siegrist
  • Carmen Keller

Abstract

Research suggests that children and adults are able to solve Bayesian problems when natural frequencies are used, but most studies have involved only students or academics. The present research focuses on random samples from the general population. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that the natural-frequency format resulted in more Bayesian responses than the probability format. Results of Experiment 3 showed that when the task is not framed as a medical problem and the numbers are not too difficult, about 40% of the general population could correctly solve the problems. More importantly, the natural-frequency format resulted in a substantial increase in correct answers in the lower level of formal education group. Experiment 4 suggests that the context of a problem influences people's ability to solve a Bayesian problem. Participants were twice as likely to solve a social problem compared with a medical problem. The results of the four experiments show that natural frequency resulted in much better estimates than probabilities. It should be emphasized, however, that even when natural frequencies were used, a majority of participants were not able to solve the problems correctly.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Siegrist & Carmen Keller, 2011. "Natural frequencies and Bayesian reasoning: the impact of formal education and problem context," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 1039-1055, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:14:y:2011:i:9:p:1039-1055
    DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2011.571786
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen Keller & Michael Siegrist, 2009. "Effect of Risk Communication Formats on Risk Perception Depending on Numeracy," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 29(4), pages 483-490, July.
    2. Michael Siegrist & Marie-Eve Cousin & Carmen Keller, 2008. "Risk communication, prenatal screening, and prenatal diagnosis: the illusion of informed decision-making," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1-2), pages 87-97, January.
    3. Gerd Gigerenzer & Ralph Hertwig & Eva Van Den Broek & Barbara Fasolo & Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, 2005. "“A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 623-629, June.
    4. Carmen Keller & Michael Siegrist & Vivianne Visschers, 2009. "Effect of Risk Ladder Format on Risk Perception in High‐ and Low‐Numerate Individuals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(9), pages 1255-1264, September.
    5. Michael Siegrist & Pascale Orlow & Carmen Keller, 2008. "The Effect of Graphical and Numerical Presentation of Hypothetical Prenatal Diagnosis Results on Risk Perception," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 28(4), pages 567-574, July.
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    1. Michelle McDowell & Mirta Galesic & Gerd Gigerenzer, 2018. "Natural Frequencies Do Foster Public Understanding of Medical Tests: Comment on Pighin, Gonzalez, Savadori, and Girotto (2016)," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 38(3), pages 390-399, April.

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