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Probing the improbable: methodological challenges for risks with low probabilities and high stakes

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  • Toby Ord
  • Rafaela Hillerbrand
  • Anders Sandberg

Abstract

Some risks have extremely high stakes. For example, a worldwide pandemic or asteroid impact could potentially kill more than a billion people. Comfortingly, scientific calcultions often put very low probabilities on the occurrence of such catastrophes. In this paper, we argue that there are important new methodological problems which arise when assessing global catastrophic risks and we focus on a problem regarding probability estimation. When an expert provides a calculation of the probability of an outcome, they are really providing the probability of the outcome occurring, given that their argument is watertight. However, their argument may fail for a number of reasons, such as a flaw in the underlying theory, a flaw in the modelling of the problem or a mistake in the calculations. If the probability estimate given by an argument is dwarfed by the chance that the argument itself is flawed, then the estimate is suspect. We develop this idea formally, explaining how it differs from the related distinction between model and parameter uncertainty. Using the risk estimates from the Large Hadron Collider as a test case, we show how serious the problem can be when it comes to catastrophic risks and how best to address it.

Suggested Citation

  • Toby Ord & Rafaela Hillerbrand & Anders Sandberg, 2010. "Probing the improbable: methodological challenges for risks with low probabilities and high stakes," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 191-205, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:13:y:2010:i:2:p:191-205
    DOI: 10.1080/13669870903126267
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cartwright,Nancy, 1999. "The Dappled World," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521644112.
    2. Cartwright,Nancy, 1999. "The Dappled World," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521643368.
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    Cited by:

    1. Milan M. Ćirković, 2012. "Small Theories and Large Risks—Is Risk Analysis Relevant for Epistemology?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1994-2004, November.
    2. Marc Lipsitch & Nicholas G. Evans & Owen Cotton‐Barratt, 2017. "Underprotection of Unpredictable Statistical Lives Compared to Predictable Ones," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(5), pages 893-904, May.
    3. Gregory Lewis & Piers Millett & Anders Sandberg & Andrew Snyder‐Beattie & Gigi Gronvall, 2019. "Information Hazards in Biotechnology," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(5), pages 975-981, May.
    4. Matt Boyd & Nick Wilson, 2020. "Existential Risks to Humanity Should Concern International Policymakers and More Could Be Done in Considering Them at the International Governance Level," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(11), pages 2303-2312, November.
    5. Milan M. Ćirković & Anders Sandberg & Nick Bostrom, 2010. "Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(10), pages 1495-1506, October.
    6. Owen Cotton‐Barratt & Max Daniel & Anders Sandberg, 2020. "Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(3), pages 271-282, May.

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