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A comparison of alternative rental forecasting models: empirical tests on the London office market

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  • Simon Stevenson
  • Oliver McGarth

Abstract

The study examines four alternative rental forecasting models in the context of the London office market. The forecasting ability of an ARIMA model, a Bayesian Vector Autoregression approach, an OLS based single equation model and a simultaneous equation model are compared and contrasted. The models are estimated using the CB Hillier Parker London Office index over the period 1977- 1996, with out-of-sample testing undertaken on the following three years of data. Diagnostic testing is also conducted on the alternative models. The findings reveal that the Bayesian VAR model produces the best forecasts, while the ARIMA model fails to pick up on the large uptake in rental values during the testing period.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Stevenson & Oliver McGarth, 2003. "A comparison of alternative rental forecasting models: empirical tests on the London office market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 235-260, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:20:y:2003:i:3:p:235-260
    DOI: 10.1080/0959991032000162338
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    1. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
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    1. Simon Stevenson & James Young, "undated". "Capital Market Expectations and the London Office Market," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2011-09, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    2. John Henneberry & Tony McGough & Fotis Mouzakis, 2005. "The Impact of Planning on Local Business Rents," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 42(3), pages 471-502, March.
    3. Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2013. "Property Market Modelling and Forecasting: A Case for Simplicity," ERES eres2013_10, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. Dimitrios Papastamos & George Matysiak & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    5. Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2012. "Examination of property forecasting models - accuracy and its improvement through combination forecasting," ERES eres2012_082, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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