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Multi-Horizon Forecast Comparison

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  • Rogier Quaedvlieg

Abstract

We introduce tests for multi-horizon superior predictive ability (SPA). Rather than comparing forecasts of different models at multiple horizons individually, we propose to jointly consider all horizons of a forecast path. We define the concepts of uniform and average SPA. The former entails superior performance at each individual horizon, while the latter allows inferior performance at some horizons to be compensated by others. The article illustrates how the tests lead to more coherent conclusions, and how they are better able to differentiate between models than the single-horizon tests. We provide an extension of the previously introduced model confidence set to allow for multi-horizon comparison of more than two models. Simulations demonstrate appropriate size and high power. An illustration of the tests on a large set of macroeconomic variables demonstrates the empirical benefits of multi-horizon comparison.

Suggested Citation

  • Rogier Quaedvlieg, 2021. "Multi-Horizon Forecast Comparison," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 40-53, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:39:y:2021:i:1:p:40-53
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2019.1620074
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
    2. Verena Monschang & Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2023. "Multi-horizon uniform superior predictive ability revisited: A size-exploiting and consistent test," CQE Working Papers 10623, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    3. Ballarin, Giovanni & Dellaportas, Petros & Grigoryeva, Lyudmila & Hirt, Marcel & van Huellen, Sophie & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2024. "Reservoir computing for macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1206-1237.
    4. Mtiraoui, Amine & Boubaker, Heni & BelKacem, Lotfi, 2023. "A hybrid approach for forecasting bitcoin series," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2023. "Out-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage an application to Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    6. Sheng, Lin Wen & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sen, Ding & Hao, Zhu Shi, 2024. "The asymmetric volatility spillover across Shanghai, Hong Kong and the U.S. stock markets: A regime weighted measure and its forecast inference," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Lin, Yu & Liao, Qidong & Lin, Zixiao & Tan, Bin & Yu, Yuanyuan, 2022. "A novel hybrid model integrating modified ensemble empirical mode decomposition and LSTM neural network for multi-step precious metal prices prediction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Heni Boubaker & Bassem Saidane & Mouna Ben Saad Zorgati, 2022. "Modelling the dynamics of stock market in the gulf cooperation council countries: evidence on persistence to shocks," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    9. Lazar, Emese & Wang, Shixuan & Xue, Xiaohan, 2023. "Loss function-based change point detection in risk measures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(1), pages 415-431.
    10. Firat Melih Yilmaz & Engin Yildiztepe, 2024. "Statistical Evaluation of Deep Learning Models for Stock Return Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(1), pages 221-244, January.
    11. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht & Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2023. "Testing Quantile Forecast Optimality," Papers 2302.02747, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    12. Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    13. Taylor, James W. & Taylor, Kathryn S., 2023. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 25-41.
    14. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Farhangdoost, Sara & Hoffman, Linwood A. & Adam, Brian D., 2023. "Forecasting the U.S. season-average farm price of corn: Derivation of an alternative futures-based forecasting model," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    15. Vereda, Luciano & Savignon, João & Gouveia da Silva, Tarciso, 2024. "A theory-based method to evaluate the impact of central bank inflation forecasts on private inflation expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1069-1084.
    16. Philip Beran & Arne Vogler, 2021. "Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparison of fundamental, econometric and hybrid Models," EWL Working Papers 2102, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Oct 2021.

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