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Uniform Test for Predictive Regression With AR Errors

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  • Chenxue Li
  • Deyuan Li
  • Liang Peng

Abstract

Testing predictability is of importance in economics and finance. Based on a predictive regression model with independent and identically distributed errors, some uniform tests have been proposed in the literature without distinguishing whether the predicting variable is stationary or nearly integrated. In this article, we extend the empirical likelihood methods of Zhu, Cai, and Peng with independent errors to the case of an AR error process. Again, the proposed new tests do not need to know whether the predicting variable is stationary or nearly integrated, and whether it has a finite variance or an infinite variance. A simulation study shows the new methodologies perform well in finite sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Chenxue Li & Deyuan Li & Liang Peng, 2017. "Uniform Test for Predictive Regression With AR Errors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 29-39, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:35:y:2017:i:1:p:29-39
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2015.1052460
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Unified Inference for Dynamic Quantile Predictive Regression," Papers 2309.14160, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    2. Yannick Hoga, 2024. "Persistence-Robust Break Detection in Predictive Quantile and CoVaR Regressions," Papers 2410.05861, arXiv.org.
    3. Rustam Ibragimov & Jihyun Kim & Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "New robust inference for predictive regressions," Papers 2006.01191, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    4. Bingduo Yang & Xiaohui Liu & Liang Peng & Zongwu Cai, 2018. "Unified Tests for a Dynamic Predictive Regression," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201808, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2018.
    5. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Bootstrapping Nonstationary Autoregressive Processes with Predictive Regression Models," Papers 2307.14463, arXiv.org.
    6. Liu, Xiaohui & Yang, Bingduo & Cai, Zongwu & Peng, Liang, 2019. "A unified test for predictability of asset returns regardless of properties of predicting variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 141-159.

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