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A tale of six states: How similar are the Gulf Cooperation Council countries?

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  • Ken Imanak Sagynbekov

Abstract

This paper reports the convergence rates for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a Bayesian shrinkage estimator. The estimated convergence rates using a panel dataset covering period from 1972 to 2008 across six countries vary from 9% to 22% per year. The results of a Bayesian change point calculations indicate that following a dramatic change in the crude oil prices in 1985, the pattern of σ-convergence reversed. Based on the estimated steady states for each country, the rank order is hypothesized to be a function of the percentage of foreign workers in the labor force.

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  • Ken Imanak Sagynbekov, 2014. "A tale of six states: How similar are the Gulf Cooperation Council countries?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 476-490, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:23:y:2014:i:4:p:476-490
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2012.762587
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    1. Young, Andrew T. & Higgins, Matthew J. & Levy, Daniel, 2008. "Sigma Convergence versus Beta Convergence: Evidence from U.S. County-Level Data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 40(5), pages 1083-1093.
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    3. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    5. Maddala, G S, et al, 1997. "Estimation of Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 90-100, January.
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