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Letting Luck Decide: Government Procurement and the Growth of Small Firms

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  • Milenko Fadic

Abstract

Iestimate the causal effects of demand shocks, stemming from government procurement, on the growth of small firms in Ecuador. I assemble a unique dataset using several new administrative sources and, as identification strategy, exploit a governmental procurement process that allocates public contracts through a randomised contest. I find a positive and significant effect of demand shocks on firm growth. On average, an increase in demand of 10 per cent will increase wage expenses and fixed assets by approximately 5 per cent during the year of the shock. I also find no evidence of spillover effects from demand shocks on sales to the public or private sector. Finally, as in other studies, I show that demand positively impacts firm growth but, contrary to other findings, this effect is temporary and only observed during the year of the shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Milenko Fadic, 2020. "Letting Luck Decide: Government Procurement and the Growth of Small Firms," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(7), pages 1263-1276, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:56:y:2020:i:7:p:1263-1276
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2019.1666979
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Grajzl & Stjepan Srhoj & Jaka Cepec & Barbara Mörec, 2024. "A by-product of big government: the attenuating role of public procurement for the effectiveness of grants-based entrepreneurship policy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 895-916, March.
    2. Antonio Estache & Renaud Foucart & Tomas Serebrisky, 2022. "When can Lotteries improve Public Procurement Processes?," Working Papers ECARES 2022-22, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Stjepan Srhoj & Melko Dragojević, 2024. "Public Procurement and Supplier Job Creation: Insights from Auctions," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 470-527.
    4. Bessonova, Evguenia, 2023. "Firms’ efficiency, exits and government procurement contracts," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Matilde Cappelletti & Leonardo M. Giuffrida, 2024. "Targeted Bidders in Government Tenders," CESifo Working Paper Series 11142, CESifo.
    6. Matilde Cappelletti & Leonardo M. Giuffrida & Gabriele Rovigatti, 2022. "Procuring Survival," CESifo Working Paper Series 10124, CESifo.
    7. Tkachenko, Andrey, 2022. "State-business relations and access to external financing," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    8. Antonio Estache & Renaud Foucart & Tomas Serebrisky, 2024. "Can Lotteries help fix Procurement Failures? A Review of Theory and Evidence," Working Papers ECARES 2024-18, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Paul Carrillo & Dave Donaldson & Dina Pomeranz & Monica Singhal, 2023. "Misallocation in Firm Production: A Nonparametric Analysis Using Procurement Lotteries," CESifo Working Paper Series 10485, CESifo.
    10. Miyazaki, Tomomi & Hiraga, Kazuki & Kozuka, Masafumi, 2024. "Stock market response to public investment under the zero lower bound: Cross-industry evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Hoekman, Bernard & Onur Taş, Bedri Kamil, 2024. "Discretion and public procurement outcomes in Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Tkachenko, Andrey, 2022. "State-business relations and access to external financing," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    13. Bernard Hoekman & Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2022. "Procurement policy and SME participation in public purchasing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 383-402, January.
    14. Cappelletti, Matilde & Giuffrida, Leonardo M., 2021. "Procuring survival," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-093, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    15. Bernard Hoekman & Marco Sanfilippo & Filippo Santi, 2022. "Government Demand and Domestic Firms Growth: Evidence from Uganda," RSCAS Working Papers 2022/54, European University Institute.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_010 is not listed on IDEAS

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