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The long-run relationship between inflation and real stock prices: empirical evidence from South Africa

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  • Riona Arjoon
  • Mariëtte Botes
  • Laban K. Chesang
  • Rangan Gupta

Abstract

The existing literature on the theoretical relationship between the rate of inflation and real stock prices in an economy has shown varied predictions about the long run effects of inflation on real stock prices. In this paper, we present some time series evidence on this issue using South African data, by applying the structural bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology proposed by King and Watson (1997). Our empirical results provide considerable support of the view that, in the long run real stock prices are invariant to permanent changes in the rate of inflation. The impulse responses reveal a positive real stock price response to a permanent inflation shock in the long run, indicating that any deviations in short run real stock prices will be corrected towards the long run value. It is therefore concluded that inflation does not lower the real value of stocks in South Africa, at least in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Riona Arjoon & Mariëtte Botes & Laban K. Chesang & Rangan Gupta, 2011. "The long-run relationship between inflation and real stock prices: empirical evidence from South Africa," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 600-613, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jbemgt:v:13:y:2011:i:4:p:600-613
    DOI: 10.3846/16111699.2011.620162
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
    2. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 639-668.
    3. Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2003. "The stock return-inflation puzzle and the asymmetric causality in stock returns, inflation and real activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 155-160, August.
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    5. H.a. Mitchell‐innes & M.j. Aziakpono & A.p. Faure, 2007. "Inflation Targeting And The Fisher Effect In South Africa: An Empirical Investigation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(4), pages 693-707, December.
    6. Osamah M. Al-Khazali & Chong Soo Pyun, 2004. "Stock Prices and Inflation: New Evidence from the Pacific-Basin Countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 123-140, March.
    7. Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2003. "The stock return-inflation puzzle and the asymmetric causality in stock returns, inflation and real activity," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Long-run equilibrium adjustment between inflation and stock market returns in South Africa: a nonlinear perspective," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 19-33.
    2. Shawtari, Fekri Ali & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Granger-causal relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices: evidence from South Africa," MPRA Paper 99848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yu Hsing, 2011. "The Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables in a BRICS Country and Policy Implications," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(1), pages 12-18.
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Zainudin, Rozaimah, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Capitalization in Pakistan:Fresh Evidence from Cointegration with unknown Structural breaks," MPRA Paper 52490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2013.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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