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The stock return-inflation puzzle and the asymmetric causality in stock returns, inflation and real activity

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  • Kim, Jeong-Ryeol

Abstract

In this paper, we use a modified concept of Granger-(non)causality in reconsidering the negative correlation between stock returns and inflation known in the literature as stock return-inflation puzzle. Based on the quarterly data for Germany including stock returns, inflation rates and growth rates of gross domestic production, it turns out that the proxy causality between stock returns and inflation may be regarded as an asymmetric one, and the indicative role of stock returns may be also asymmetrically Granger-causal to the growth rates of gross domestic production.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2003. "The stock return-inflation puzzle and the asymmetric causality in stock returns, inflation and real activity," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4198
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    Cited by:

    1. Shu‐Chin Lin, 2009. "Inflation And Real Stock Returns Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 783-795, October.
    2. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "The responses of BRICS Equities to China's Slowdown: A Multi-Scale Causality Analysis," Working Papers hal-01880323, HAL.
    3. Chih-Chuan Yeh & Ching-Fang Chi, 2009. "The Co-Movement and Long-Run Relationship between Inflation and Stock Returns: Evidence from 12 OECD Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 167-186, July.
    4. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2007. "L'inflation et la rentabilité des actions : une relation énigmatique et un casse-tête pour les banques centrales," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 177(1), pages 19-34.
    5. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour & Amal Miftah, 2019. "China's “New normal”: Will China's growth slowdown derail the BRICS stock markets?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 159, pages 121-139.
    6. Kim, Jae H. & Ryoo, Heajin H., 2011. "Common stocks as a hedge against inflation: Evidence from century-long US data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 168-171.
    7. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    8. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2017. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1794-1807, April.
    9. Camilleri, Silvio John & Scicluna, Nicolanne & Bai, Ye, 2019. "Do stock markets lead or lag macroeconomic variables? Evidence from select European countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 170-186.
    10. Riona Arjoon & Mariëtte Botes & Laban K. Chesang & Rangan Gupta, 2011. "The long-run relationship between inflation and real stock prices: empirical evidence from South Africa," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 600-613, July.
    11. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    12. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "The responses of BRICS Equities to China's Slowdown: A Multi-Scale Causality Analysis," Working Papers hal-01880323, HAL.
    13. Niyati Bhanja & Arif Billah Dar, 2019. "Stock returns and inflation: a tale of two periods in India," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 413-438, November.
    14. Claudiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2016. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: Testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Papers 1603.01231, arXiv.org.
    15. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2006. "L'identité de Fisher et l'interaction entre l'inflation et la rentabilité des actions: l'importance des régimes sous-jacents aux marchés boursiers," BCL working papers 18, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    16. Karagianni Stella & Kyrtsou Catherine, 2011. "Analysing the Dynamics between U.S. Inflation and Dow Jones Index Using Non-Linear Methods," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-25, March.
    17. Zhu, Hui-Ming & Li, ZhaoLai & You, WanHai & Zeng, Zhaofa, 2015. "Revisiting the asymmetric dynamic dependence of stock returns: Evidence from a quantile autoregression model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 142-153.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Proxy hypothesis; Granger-causality; asymmetry; threshold; nonlinearity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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