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Test of two hypotheses explaining the size of populations in a system of cities

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  • Nikolay K. Vitanov
  • Marcel Ausloos

Abstract

Two classical hypotheses are examined about the population growth in a system of cities: Hypothesis 1 pertains to Gibrat's and Zipf's theory which states that the city growth-decay process is size independent; Hypothesis 2 pertains to the so-called Yule process which states that the growth of populations in cities happens when (i) the distribution of the city population initial size obeys a log-normal function, (ii) the growth of the settlements follows a stochastic process. The basis for the test is some official data on Bulgarian cities at various times. This system was chosen because (i) Bulgaria is a country for which one does not expect biased theoretical conditions; (ii) the city populations were determined rather precisely. The present results show that: (i) the population size growth of the Bulgarian cities is size dependent, whence Hypothesis 1 is not confirmed for Bulgaria; (ii) the population size growth of Bulgarian cities can be described by a double Pareto log-normal distribution, whence Hypothesis 2 is valid for the Bulgarian city system. It is expected that this fine study brings some information and light on other usually considered to be more pertinent countries of city systems.

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  • Nikolay K. Vitanov & Marcel Ausloos, 2015. "Test of two hypotheses explaining the size of populations in a system of cities," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 2686-2693, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:42:y:2015:i:12:p:2686-2693
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2015.1047744
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ausloos, Marcel & Eskandary, Ali & Kaur, Parmjit & Dhesi, Gurjeet, 2019. "Evidence for Gross Domestic Product growth time delay dependence over Foreign Direct Investment. A time-lag dependent correlation study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 527(C).
    2. Vanessa Grüdtner & André M. Marques, 2020. "Is Gibrat's law robust when cities interact each other?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(4), pages 1087-1111, August.
    3. Hu, Zhibin & Wu, Guangdong & Han, Yilong & Niu, Yanliang, 2023. "Unraveling the dynamic changes of high-speed rail network with urban development: Evidence from China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Domínguez Jurado, José Miguel & Triguero-Ruiz, Francisco & Avila-Cano, Antonio, 2021. "Firm growth in the 21st century: Does the Andalusian economy comply with Gibrat’s Law?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 577(C).

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