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Predicting rainy seasons: quantifying the beliefs of prophets

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  • J. A. A. Andrade
  • J. P. Gosling

Abstract

In general, meteorologists find it difficult to make seasonal predictions in the north-east region of Brazil due to the contrasting atmospheric phenomena that take place there. The rain prophets claim to be able to predict the seasonal weather by observing the behavior of nature. Their predictions have a strong degree of subjectivity; this makes science (especially meteorology) disregard these predictions, which could be a relevant source of information for prediction models. In this article, we regard the prophets' knowledge from a subjectivist point of view: we apply elicitation of expert knowledge techniques to extract their opinions and convert them into probability densities that represent their predictions of forthcoming rainy seasons.

Suggested Citation

  • J. A. A. Andrade & J. P. Gosling, 2011. "Predicting rainy seasons: quantifying the beliefs of prophets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 183-193.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:38:y:2011:i:1:p:183-193
    DOI: 10.1080/02664760903301168
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chezy Ofir & Srinivas K. Reddy, 1996. "Measurement Errors in Probability Judgments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(9), pages 1308-1325, September.
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