IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ems/eureir/8842.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Confidence intervals for maximal reliability of probability judgments

Author

Listed:
  • Lam, K.Y.
  • Koning, A.J.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

Subjective probabilities play an important role in marketing research, for example where individuals rate the likelihood that they will purchase a new to develop product. The tau-equivalent model can describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability. It improves the reliability of the subjective probability estimate by using a weighted sum as the outcome of the test rather than an unweighted sum. One can choose the weights to obtain maximal reliability. In this paper we stress the use of confidence intervals to assess maximal reliability, as this allows for a more critical assessment of the items as measurement instruments. Furthermore, two new confidence intervals for the maximal reliability are derived and compared to intervals derived earlier in \\citet{YuanBentler2002, RaykovPenev2006}. The comparison involves coverage curves, a methodology that is new in the field of reliability. The existing Yuan-Bentler and Raykov-Penev intervals are shown to overestimate the maximal reliability, whereas one of our proposed intervals, the stable interval, performs very well. This stable interval hardly shows any bias, and has a coverage for the true value which is approximately equal to the confidence level.

Suggested Citation

  • Lam, K.Y. & Koning, A.J. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2007. "Confidence intervals for maximal reliability of probability judgments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:8842
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/8842/ei%202007-09.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ke-Hai Yuan & Peter Bentler, 2002. "On robusiness of the normal-theory based asymptotic distributions of three reliability coefficient estimates," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 251-259, June.
    2. Chezy Ofir & Srinivas K. Reddy, 1996. "Measurement Errors in Probability Judgments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(9), pages 1308-1325, September.
    3. Lee Cronbach, 1951. "Coefficient alpha and the internal structure of tests," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 16(3), pages 297-334, September.
    4. Thomas S. Wallsten & David V. Budescu, 1983. "State of the Art---Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 151-173, February.
    5. Walter Kristof, 1963. "The statistical theory of stepped-up reliability coefficients when a test has been divided into several equivalent parts," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 28(3), pages 221-238, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klaas Sijtsma & Ivo Molenaar, 1987. "Reliability of test scores in nonparametric item response theory," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 79-97, March.
    2. Emily Kistner & Keith Muller, 2004. "Exact distributions of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha with Gaussian data and general covariance," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 459-474, September.
    3. Walter Kristof, 1971. "On the theory of a set of tests which differ only in length," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 36(3), pages 207-225, September.
    4. Ke-Hai Yuan & Peter Bentler, 2002. "On robusiness of the normal-theory based asymptotic distributions of three reliability coefficient estimates," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 251-259, June.
    5. Tyler Hunt & Peter Bentler, 2015. "Quantile Lower Bounds to Reliability Based on Locally Optimal Splits," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 80(1), pages 182-195, March.
    6. Van Ginkel, Joost R. & Andries Van der Ark, L. & Sijtsma, Klaas & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2007. "Two-way imputation: A Bayesian method for estimating missing scores in tests and questionnaires, and an accurate approximation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 4013-4027, May.
    7. David Woodruff & Leonard Feldt, 1986. "Tests for equality of several alpha coefficients when their sample estimates are dependent," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 393-413, September.
    8. Francisco Liébana-Cabanillas & Nidhi Singh & Zoran Kalinic & Elena Carvajal-Trujillo, 2021. "Examining the determinants of continuance intention to use and the moderating effect of the gender and age of users of NFC mobile payments: a multi-analytical approach," Information Technology and Management, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 133-161, June.
    9. Yoon, Junghyun & Lee, Hee Yong & Dinwoodie, John, 2015. "Competitiveness of container terminal operating companies in South Korea and the industry–university–government network," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-14.
    10. Md. Mominur Rahman & Bilkis Akhter, 2021. "The impact of investment in human capital on bank performance: evidence from Bangladesh," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Usunier, Jean-Claude, 1998. "Oral pleasure and expatriate satisfaction: an empirical approach," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 89-110, February.
    12. Abdul Kadar Muhammad Masum & Md Abul Kalam Azad & Loo-See Beh, 2015. "Determinants of Academics' Job Satisfaction: Empirical Evidence from Private Universities in Bangladesh," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    13. Amolo Elvis Juma Amolo & Charles Mallans Rambo & Charles Misiko Wafula, 2024. "Hedging Derivatives and Performance of Renewable Energy Projects in Kenya," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 11(8), pages 619-630, August.
    14. Sharma, Vivek & Bhat, Dada Ab Rouf, 2020. "An empirical study exploring the relationship among human capital innovation, service innovation, competitive advantage and employee productivity in hospitality services," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 1-14..
    15. Deepak, 2016. "Antecedent Value of Professional Commitment and Job Involvement in Determining Job Satisfaction," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 41(2), pages 154-164, May.
    16. Abernethy, Margaret A. & Vagnoni, Emidia, 2004. "Power, organization design and managerial behaviour," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 207-225.
    17. Marianela Denegri & María Baeza & Natalia Salinas-Oñate & Verónica Peñaloza & Horacio Miranda & Ligia Orellana, 2014. "Materialism in Pedagogy Students in Chile," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 117(2), pages 505-521, June.
    18. Terason Sid, 2021. "Predicting Sports Facility Revisit Intentions Based on Experience and Mediating Effects of Perceived Value," Polish Journal of Sport and Tourism, Sciendo, vol. 28(3), pages 35-41, September.
    19. Amy Roberts & Gregory S. Ching, 2021. "The Ebb and Flow of Study Abroad: A Comparative Analysis of PRC and International Students in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-18, May.
    20. Tomislav Letnik & Katja Hanžič & Giuseppe Luppino & Matej Mencinger, 2022. "Impact of Logistics Trends on Freight Transport Development in Urban Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-18, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:8842. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RePub (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feeurnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.