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Eliminating the omitted variable bias by a regime-switching approach

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  • Andrea Beccarini

Abstract

This work shows a procedure that aims to eliminate or reduce the bias caused by omitted variables by means of the so-called regime-switching regressions. There is a bias estimation whenever the statistical (linear) model is under-specified, that is, when there are some omitted variables and they are correlated with the regressors. This work shows how an appropriate specification of a regime-switching model (independent or Markov-switching) can eliminate or reduce this correlation, hence the estimation bias. A demonstration is given, together with some Monte Carlo simulations. An empirical verification, based on Fisher's equation, is also provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Beccarini, 2010. "Eliminating the omitted variable bias by a regime-switching approach," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 57-75.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:37:y:2010:i:1:p:57-75
    DOI: 10.1080/02664760902914474
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    2. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
    3. Ruud, Paul A., 1991. "Extensions of estimation methods using the EM algorithm," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 305-341, September.
    4. Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "Moments of Markov switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May.
    5. Sessions, David N. & Stevans, Lonnie K., 2006. "Investigating omitted variable bias in regression parameter estimation: A genetic algorithm approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2835-2854, June.
    6. McCallum, B T, 1972. "Relative Asymptotic Bias from Errors of Omission and Measurement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(4), pages 757-758, July.
    7. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Beccarini, 2019. "Testing for the omission of relevant variables and regime-switching misspecification," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 775-796, March.
    2. Price Gregory N. & Elu Juliet U., 2017. "Climate Change and Cross-State Islamist Terrorism in Nigeria," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-13, August.
    3. Gregory N. Price, 2019. "Does Productivity in the Formal Food Sector Drive Human Ebola Virus Infections in Sub‐Saharan Africa?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(2), pages 167-178, June.

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