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Modelling seasonally varying data: A case study for Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS)

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  • Jennifer Mooney
  • Ian Jolliffe
  • Peter Helms

Abstract

Many time series are measured monthly, either as averages or totals, and such data often exhibit seasonal variability - the values of the series are consistently larger for some months of the year than for others. A typical series of this type is the number of deaths each month attributed to SIDS (Sudden Infant Death Syndrome). Seasonality can be modelled in a number of ways. This paper describes and discusses various methods for modelling seasonality in SIDS data, though much of the discussion is relevant to other seasonally varying data. There are two main approaches, either fitting a circular probability distribution to the data, or using regression-based techniques to model the mean seasonal behaviour. Both are discussed in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer Mooney & Ian Jolliffe & Peter Helms, 2006. "Modelling seasonally varying data: A case study for Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS)," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 535-547.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:33:y:2006:i:5:p:535-547
    DOI: 10.1080/2664760600585642
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Mooney, Jennifer & Helms, Peter J. & Jolliffe, Ian T., 2003. "Fitting mixtures of von Mises distributions: a case study involving sudden infant death syndrome," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 505-513, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. S. Liu & T. Ma & A. SenGupta & K. Shimizu & M.-Z. Wang, 2017. "Influence Diagnostics in Possibly Asymmetric Circular-Linear Multivariate Regression Models," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 79(1), pages 76-93, May.
    2. Toshihiro Abe & Arthur Pewsey & Kunio Shimizu, 2013. "Extending circular distributions through transformation of argument," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 65(5), pages 833-858, October.
    3. M. C. Jones & Arthur Pewsey, 2012. "Inverse Batschelet Distributions for Circular Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 183-193, March.

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