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The final set in a tennis match: Four years at Wimbledon

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  • Jan Magnus
  • Franc Klaassen

Abstract

We consider the 'final' (deciding) set in a tennis match. We examine whether it is true that the chances for both players to win the match are equal at the beginning of the final set, even though they were not equal at the beginning of the match. We also test whether it is easier for an unseeded woman to beat a seeded player than it is for an unseeded man, and whether male players are more closely equal in quality than are females. We examine whether the service dominance decreases in long matches, and whether winning the 'pre-final' set provides an advantage in the final set. We use almost 90 000 points at Wimbledon to test all five hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Magnus & Franc Klaassen, 1999. "The final set in a tennis match: Four years at Wimbledon," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 461-468.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:26:y:1999:i:4:p:461-468
    DOI: 10.1080/02664769922340
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lawrence H. Riddle, 1988. "Probability Models for Tennis Scoring Systems," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 37(1), pages 63-75, March.
    2. B. P. Hsi & D. M. Burych, 1971. "Games of Two Players," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 20(1), pages 86-92, March.
    3. Lawrence H. Riddle, 1988. "Probability Models for Tennis Scoring Systems," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 37(3), pages 490-490, November.
    4. Klaassen, F.J.G.M. & Magnus, J.R., 1998. "On the Independence and Identical Distribution of Points in Tennis," Other publications TiSEM 395a6222-6318-49b5-a42c-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    Cited by:

    1. Benno Torgler, 2004. "?La Grande Boucle?: Determinants of Success at the Tour de France," CREMA Working Paper Series 2004-22, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA), revised May 2005.
    2. Tomi Ovaska & Albert J. Sumell, 2014. "Who Has The Advantage? An Economic Exploration of Winning in Men's Professional Tennis," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 59(1), pages 34-51, May.
    3. Julio del Corral, 2009. "Competitive Balance and Match Uncertainty in Grand-Slam Tennis," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(6), pages 563-581, December.
    4. Kurt Rotthoff & Danielle Zanzalari & John Jasina, 2011. "What are the odds? A measure of the small sample problems," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 1139-1143.

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