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Conditional price volatility, speculation, and excessive speculation in commodity markets: sheep or shepherd behaviour?

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  • Bernardina Algieri

Abstract

The present study aims to investigate the dynamics of primary commodity spot prices and the role of speculation for the period 1995--2012. Using a linear and nonlinear Granger causality analysis, the relationship between speculation and GARCH conditional price volatility on the one side, and the linkage between excessive speculation and GARCH conditional price volatility on the other side, is carefully examined with the scope to establish whether volatility drives speculation or speculation drives price volatility, or whether there are no linkages between the two variables. The results show that excessive speculation leads conditional price volatility, and that bilateral relationships often exist between price volatility and speculation. In addition, the lead-lag relationships are not found for the entire sample period, but rather when small sub-periods are taken into account. It turns out, in fact, that excessive speculation has driven price volatility for maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat in particular time frames, but the relationships are not always overlapping for all considered commodities. Generally, the results under linear causality tests are in agreement with those obtained under nonlinear counterparts.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardina Algieri, 2016. "Conditional price volatility, speculation, and excessive speculation in commodity markets: sheep or shepherd behaviour?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 210-237, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:30:y:2016:i:2:p:210-237
    DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2015.1102204
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen J. Taylor, 2007. "Introduction to Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction," Introductory Chapters, in: Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction, Princeton University Press.
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    Cited by:

    1. ap Gwilym, Rhys & Ebrahim, M. Shahid & El Alaoui, Abdelkader O. & Rahman, Hamid & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2020. "Financial frictions and the futures pricing puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 358-371.
    2. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo, 2019. "Price volatility and speculative activities in futures commodity markets: A combination of combinations of p-values test," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 40-54.
    3. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Financial Speculation Impact on Agricultural and Other Commodity Return Volatility: Implications for Sustainable Development and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-27, November.
    4. de Jong, Johan & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2022. "The effect of futures markets on the stability of commodity prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 176-211.
    5. Sophie van Huellen, 2018. "How financial investment distorts food prices: evidence from U.S. grain markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 171-181, March.
    6. Algieri, Bernardina, 2018. "A Journey Through the History of Commodity Derivatives Markets and the Political Economy of (De)Regulation," Discussion Papers 281139, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    7. Bernardina Algieri, 2021. "Fast & furious: Do psychological and legal factors affect commodity price volatility?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 980-1017, April.
    8. repec:ags:aaea22:335869 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Mora-García, Claudio & Mulder, Nanno, 2021. "Speculation and price volatility in the coffee market," Documentos de Proyectos 46923, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

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