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The Contractionary Short-Run Effects of Nominal Devaluation in Developing Countries: Some Neglected Nuances

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  • Arslan Razmi

Abstract

This article extends the model developed by Krugman and Taylor (1978) to take into account interesting features of the evolving structure of global trade. The growing presence of transnational production chains and differential pricing behaviour of exports destined for industrial and developing countries are accommodated. Individual country and panel data pass-through estimates derived from several econometric approaches are provided to justify the latter extension. The likelihood of contractionary short-run effects of devaluations is shown to be positively related to: 1) the proportion of a country's exports destined for other developing countries; and 2) the presence of transnational corporations (TNCs) in either the export or home goods-producing sector. Unlike the Krugman-Taylor case, devaluation will generally have a contractionary impact even if: 1) trade is initially balanced; 2) consumption behaviour does not differ between wage and profit earners; and 3) the government sector has a high marginal propensity to consume in the short run. The resulting policy implications underline the need to take into account these increasingly important nuances of international trade while designing exchange rate policies for developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Arslan Razmi, 2007. "The Contractionary Short-Run Effects of Nominal Devaluation in Developing Countries: Some Neglected Nuances," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 577-602.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:21:y:2007:i:5:p:577-602
    DOI: 10.1080/02692170701474611
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Frenkel, Roberto & Rapetti, Martin, 2014. "The real exchange rate as a target of macroeconomic policy," MPRA Paper 59335, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    6. Manuel CANTAVELLA-JORDA & Sheila Amin GUTIERREZ DE PIÑERES, 2012. "A Cross-national Panel Study of Devaluations on Disaggregated Export Sectors: A Case for Sector Specific Policies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).
    7. Fernando Rugitsky, 2017. "The rise and fall of the Brazilian economy (2004-2015): the economic antimiracle," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_29, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    8. Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro & John S. L. McCombie & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2017. "Some unpleasant currency-devaluation arithmetic in a post Keynesian macromodel," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 145-167, April.
    9. Gonzalo Hernández, 2011. "Terms of Trade and Output Fluctuations in Colombia," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-04, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    10. Ariel Dvoskin & Germán David Feldman & Guido Ianni, 2020. "New‐structuralist exchange‐rate policy and the pattern of specialization in Latin American countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 22-48, February.

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