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A Study of the Relationship between Renminbi Exchange Rates and Chinese Stock Prices

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  • Robert W. Rutledge
  • Khondkar E. Karim
  • Chensheng Li

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between Chinese renminbi (RMB) exchange rates and Chinese stock prices over the full study period of 20 July 2001 to 21 July 2011. The study also investigates the relationship between the exchange rate and ten industry-specific indices. Also examined is the effect of two specific events on the 'exchange rate/stock price' relationship: (1) the easing of exchange rate controls, and (2) the 2008 start of the global financial crisis. A long-run cointegration relationship is found during the full study period between exchange rates and the Shanghai A-share prices, and for nine of ten industry indices. Granger causality in one direction (i.e., from exchange rates to stock prices, or vice versa) or both directions is found for four of the industry-specific indices. Interestingly, both a long-run cointegration relationship and Granger causality are only found during the most volatile period of managed exchanged rates before the global financial crisis. Implications for Chinese monetary policy makers and global investors are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Rutledge & Khondkar E. Karim & Chensheng Li, 2014. "A Study of the Relationship between Renminbi Exchange Rates and Chinese Stock Prices," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 381-403, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:28:y:2014:i:3:p:381-403
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2014.913652
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    3. Wee-Yeap Lau & You-How Go, 2018. "Dynamic Causality Between Stock Return and Exchange Rate: Is Stock-Oriented Hypothesis More Relevant in Malaysia?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 25(2), pages 137-157, June.
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    5. Shaobo Long & Mengxue Zhang & Keaobo Li & Shuyu Wu, 2021. "Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2022. "On the relationship between Asian exchange rates and stock prices: a nonlinear analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 361-400, February.
    7. Jimoh Olajide Raji & Yusnidah Ibrahim & Siti-Aznor Ahmad, 2017. "Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate Nexus in African Markets," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 112-134, January.
    8. He, Zhifang & Sun, Hao & Chen, Jiaqi & Yang, Xin & Yin, Zhujia, 2023. "Dynamic interaction of risk–return trade-offs between oil market and China’s stock market: An analysis from the risk preferences perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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