IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/intecj/v28y2014i3p381-403.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Study of the Relationship between Renminbi Exchange Rates and Chinese Stock Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Robert W. Rutledge
  • Khondkar E. Karim
  • Chensheng Li

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between Chinese renminbi (RMB) exchange rates and Chinese stock prices over the full study period of 20 July 2001 to 21 July 2011. The study also investigates the relationship between the exchange rate and ten industry-specific indices. Also examined is the effect of two specific events on the 'exchange rate/stock price' relationship: (1) the easing of exchange rate controls, and (2) the 2008 start of the global financial crisis. A long-run cointegration relationship is found during the full study period between exchange rates and the Shanghai A-share prices, and for nine of ten industry indices. Granger causality in one direction (i.e., from exchange rates to stock prices, or vice versa) or both directions is found for four of the industry-specific indices. Interestingly, both a long-run cointegration relationship and Granger causality are only found during the most volatile period of managed exchanged rates before the global financial crisis. Implications for Chinese monetary policy makers and global investors are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Rutledge & Khondkar E. Karim & Chensheng Li, 2014. "A Study of the Relationship between Renminbi Exchange Rates and Chinese Stock Prices," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 381-403, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:28:y:2014:i:3:p:381-403
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2014.913652
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10168737.2014.913652
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10168737.2014.913652?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Timothy A Luehrman, 1991. "Exchange Rate Changes and the Distribution of Industry Value," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 22(4), pages 619-649, December.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Zhao, Hua, 2010. "Dynamic relationship between exchange rate and stock price: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 103-112, June.
    5. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Friberg, Richard & Nydahl, Stefan, 1999. "Openness and the Exchange Rate Exposure of National Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 55-62, January.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    9. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Fok, Robert Chi-Wing & Liu, Y. Angela, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-520.
    10. Chien-Chung Nieh & Hwey-Yun Yau, 2010. "The Impact of Renminbi Appreciation on Stock Prices in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 16-26, January.
    11. MacDonald, Ronald & Kearney, Colm, 1987. "On the specification of granger-causality tests using the cointegration methodology," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 149-153.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wee-Yeap Lau & You-How Go, 2018. "Dynamic Causality Between Stock Return and Exchange Rate: Is Stock-Oriented Hypothesis More Relevant in Malaysia?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 25(2), pages 137-157, June.
    2. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2022. "On the relationship between Asian exchange rates and stock prices: a nonlinear analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 361-400, February.
    3. Jimoh Olajide Raji & Yusnidah Ibrahim & Siti-Aznor Ahmad, 2017. "Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate Nexus in African Markets," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 112-134, January.
    4. He, Zhifang & Sun, Hao & Chen, Jiaqi & Yang, Xin & Yin, Zhujia, 2023. "Dynamic interaction of risk–return trade-offs between oil market and China’s stock market: An analysis from the risk preferences perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    6. Abhinandan Kulal & Deepak Kallige Vishwanath & Sanath Kumar Kanthila, 2023. "Dynamic Relationship Between Rupee-Dollar Exchange Rate and Major Economic Indicators," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 15(1), pages 18-30, August.
    7. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2016. "Stock markets and effective exchange rates in European countries: threshold cointegration findings," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 215-274, August.
    8. Shaobo Long & Mengxue Zhang & Keaobo Li & Shuyu Wu, 2021. "Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2016. "Stock markets and effective exchange rates in European countries: threshold cointegration findings," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 215-274, August.
    2. Lee, Chin & M., Azali, 2013. "Financial Integration among ASEAN+3 Countries: Evidence from Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 58162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Athanasios Koulakiotis & Apostolis Kiohos & Vassilios Babalos, 2015. "Exploring the interaction between stock price index and exchange rates: an asymmetric threshold approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(13), pages 1273-1285, March.
    4. Barja, Gover, 1995. "Time Series Analysis of Macroeconomic Conditions in Open Economies," MPRA Paper 62178, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    7. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "A roller coaster ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of the international wheat price," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 459-475, July.
    8. Martin T. Bohl & Alexander Pütz & Pierre L. Siklos & Christoph Sulewski, 2018. "Information Transmission under Increasing Political Tension – Evidence for the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887-1896," CQE Working Papers 7618, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    9. Bardsen, G. & Klovland, J.T., 1990. "Finding The Rigth Nominal Anchor: The Cointegration Of Money, Credit And Nominal Income In Norway," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 350, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    10. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    11. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    12. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    13. Pat Wilson & John Okunev & Guy Ta, 1994. "Are Real Estate and Securities Markets Integrated? Some Australian Evidence," Working Paper Series 42, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    14. Tripura Sundari C. U. & Anindita Mitra, 2020. "Development and Degradation: The Nexus between GDP, FDI, and Pollution in India," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 39-49, May.
    15. Ayesha Siddiqui & Mohd Shamim & Mohammad Asif & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2022. "Are Stock Markets among BRICS Members Integrated? A Regime Shift-Based Co-Integration Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-25, April.
    16. Sebastian Kripfganz & Daniel C. Schneider, 2020. "Response Surface Regressions for Critical Value Bounds and Approximate p‐values in Equilibrium Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1456-1481, December.
    17. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Fortuna, Natércia, 2010. "Human capital, R&D, trade, and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 335-350, April.
    18. Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas, 1995. "Cointegration and market efficiency: a time series analysis of the Greek drachma," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(8), pages 271-277.
    19. Bushara, Mohammed O. A. & Abdelmahmod, Murtada Kh. A., 2016. "Efficiency of selected camel markets in Sudan: A multivariate approach (1995-2011)," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246910, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    20. Phengpis, Chanwit, 2006. "Market efficiency and cointegration of spot exchange rates during periods of economic turmoil: Another look at European and Asian currency crises," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 323-342.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:28:y:2014:i:3:p:381-403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RIEJ20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.