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Co-movement of Government Debt and Economic Growth in the Euro-area: A Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model Analysis

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  • Huiran Pan
  • Chun Wang

Abstract

This paper applies a Bayesian dynamic factor model to analyze the co-movement of government debt and economic growth in 12 euro-area countries from 1970--2009. We decompose the variations in output growth and government debt into three distinct factors: (i) a common factor capturing co-movement across the 24 series in all 12 countries; (ii) a country factor common to the two series in each country; and (iii) an idiosyncratic factor specific to each series. We find that the common factor affects output growth positively but government debt negatively. Furthermore, the common factor dominates the country and idiosyncratic factors in accounting for the fluctuations in output growth and government debt, especially in the period 1999--2009 when the common factor became less volatile but more important for macroeconomic fluctuations. Our results suggest some convergence in output growth and government debt in the 12 euro-area countries after the launch of the euro.

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  • Huiran Pan & Chun Wang, 2013. "Co-movement of Government Debt and Economic Growth in the Euro-area: A Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 625-643, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:27:y:2013:i:4:p:625-643
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2012.719916
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    1. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    2. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2010. "The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: an empirical investigation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1237, European Central Bank.
    3. Dino Martellato, 2008. "Economic Integration and Macroeconomic Convergence in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2008_34, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    4. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    5. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Schclarek, Alfredo, 2004. "Debt and Economic Growth in Developing and Industrial Countries," Working Papers 2005:34, Lund University, Department of Economics.
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