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Foreign exchange reserves and import demand in a developing economy: the case of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Augustine Arize
  • John Malindretos
  • Elias Grivoyannis

Abstract

Conventional specifications of import demand in LDCs have commonly been plagued by implausible and unstable parameter estimates. This paper shows the importance of imposing long-run income homogeneity and of including foreign exchange reserves when estimating import demand function for an LDC. Using several cointegration techniques, it is shown that there is one linear relationship among real imports, real income, relative import prices and real foreign exchange reserves. In addition, by employing stability tests for cointegrated systems by Hansen (1992a), the paper shows that only when foreign exchange reserves and long-run unit-income homogeneity are accounted for does a constant parameter, long-run equilibrium relation emerge for Pakistan. Also, the ensuing short-run dynamic model is constant and data-coherent. Finally, the study provides information on the speed of adjustment to equilibrium and the median and mean time lags of adjustments of real imports to changes in their determinants. The results indicate a quick response of real imports to changes in their determinants.

Suggested Citation

  • Augustine Arize & John Malindretos & Elias Grivoyannis, 2004. "Foreign exchange reserves and import demand in a developing economy: the case of Pakistan," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 259-274.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:18:y:2004:i:2:p:259-274
    DOI: 10.1080/1016873042000228376
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gregory C. Reinsel & Sung K. Ahn, 1992. "Vector Autoregressive Models With Unit Roots And Reduced Rank Structure:Estimation. Likelihood Ratio Test, And Forecasting," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 353-375, July.
    2. Khan, Mohsin S & Knight, Malcolm D, 1988. "Import Compression and Export Performance in Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 315-321, May.
    3. Faini, Riccardo & Pritchett, Lant & Clavijo, Fernando, 1988. "Import demand in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 122, The World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Morlai Bangura & Oluwakemi Ademisola & Olufemi Saibu, 2023. "Estimating Sierra Leone’s Aggregate Import Demand Function Under Binding Foreign Exchange," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 113127-1131, February.
    2. Abdul Rashid & Tayyaba Razzaq, 2013. "An Estimation of Structural Import Demand Function for Pakistan," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 156-175.
    3. repec:lje:journl:v:19:y:2014:i:sp:p:371-393 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Rashid, Abdul & Razzaq, Tayyaba, 2010. "Estimating Import-Demand Function in ARDL Framework: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 23702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Rashid, Abdul & Razzaq, Tayyaba, 2010. "Estimating Import-Demand Function in ARDL Framework: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 26079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Adewuyi, Adeolu & Ogebe, Joseph O. & Oshota, Sebil, 2021. "The role of exchange rate and relative import price on sawnwood import demand in Africa: Evidence from modified heterogeneous panel data methods," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    7. Ubong Edem Effiong, 2022. "Foreign Exchange Reserves and Import Demand in a Developing Economy: New Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Business Management and Finance Research, Academia Publishing Group, vol. 5(2), pages 85-99.
    8. Khyati Kathuria & Nand Kumar, 2022. "Are exports and imports of India’s trading partners cointegrated? Evidence from Fourier bootstrap ARDL procedure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1177-1191, March.
    9. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra & Asit Mohanty, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Arize, Augustine C. & Nippani, Srinivas, 2010. "Import demand behavior in Africa: Some new evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 254-263, August.

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