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What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?

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  • Yin Zhang
  • Guanghua Wan

Abstract

This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós (2001) and Prasad (1999). The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985-2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock, and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2004. "What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-55, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2004-55
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    Cited by:

    1. Xin Gu & Zhang-Yue Zhou & A.B.M. Rabiul Alam Beg, 2014. "What determines China's trade balance dynamics: a disaggregate analysis of panel data," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 353-368, April.
    2. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2014. "Trade Balance, Foreign Exchange and Macroeconomic Impacts: An Empirical Assessment for China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 59539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2014.
    3. Chan, Tze-Haw & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2010. "China-Malaysia’s Trading and Exchange Rate: Complementary or Conflicting Features?," MPRA Paper 25546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chan, Tze-Haw & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2011. "China-Malaysia’s long run trading and exchange rate: complementary or conflicting?," MPRA Paper 33585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Chengjun Shi & Jing Li, 2017. "Does dollar-pegging matter? A closer look at US trade deficits with China and Germany," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 451-472, May.
    6. Biswajit Banerjee & Haiyan Shi & Jan Radovan & Yingying Sheng & Xin Li, 2017. "The Impact of the Exchange Rate and Trade Composition on China’s Trade Balance Vis-à-Vis Selected Partner Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(3), pages 311-344, September.
    7. Nguyen Thi Viet Nga, 2020. "Analysis of the Determinants of Trade Balance: A Case Study of Vietnam," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 1-2.
    8. Nikolaychuk Sergiy & Shapovalenko Nadiia, 2013. "The identification of the sources of current account fluctuations in Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 13/12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    9. Yongqing Wang & Guanghua Wan, 2008. "China's Trade Imbalances: The Role of FDI," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-103, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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