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Conflict Dynamics and Feedback: Explaining Change in Violence against Civilians within Conflicts

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  • Clionadh Raleigh
  • Hyun Jin Choi

Abstract

Conflicts are complex, dynamic processes wherein the frequency and intensity of violence changes throughout the contest. In this article, we explore the temporal dynamics of two long-term civil wars—DR-Congo and Sudan—to identify systematic and random conditions that lead to changes in civilian targeting. Violence committed by rival political actors, territorial exchange, and the number and addition of violent agents strongly shape the likelihood that civilian targeting events and casualties increase or decrease over time. General and country differences emerge from vector autoregression analysis to suggest that (1) three types of violent agents—rebels, militias, and the government—are locked in spirals of violence where violence against civilians by one actor leads to subsequent violence by another actor; (2) rebels and government forces respond to the other side’s acquisition of contested territory by increasing counterattacks on civilians, specifically in DR-Congo; and (3) increasing numbers of active nonstate agents lead to higher violence rates in the following months. Among these, civilian targeting by rival actors triggers the most follow-on violent events against civilians.

Suggested Citation

  • Clionadh Raleigh & Hyun Jin Choi, 2017. "Conflict Dynamics and Feedback: Explaining Change in Violence against Civilians within Conflicts," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 848-878, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:43:y:2017:i:5:p:848-878
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2017.1235271
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    1. Sean Becketti, 2013. "Introduction to Time Series Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number itsus, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Ubilava & Justin V. Hastings & Kadir Atalay, 2023. "Agricultural windfalls and the seasonality of political violence in Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(5), pages 1309-1332, October.
    2. Justin Hastings & David Ubilava, 2023. "Agricultural Roots of Social Conflict in Southeast Asia," Papers 2304.10027, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    3. Piotr Lis & Michael Spagat & Uih Ran Lee, 2021. "Civilian targeting in African conflicts: A poor actor’s game that spreads through space," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(5), pages 900-914, September.
    4. Roos Haer & Babak RezaeeDaryakenari, 2022. "Disasters and civilian victimization: Exploring the dynamic effect in Africa, 1997–2017," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 43-57, January.

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