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Do Civil Wars, Coups and Riots Have the Same Structural Determinants?

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  • Cristina Bodea
  • Ibrahim Elbadawi
  • Christian Houle

Abstract

The literature on political instability focuses on institutional and leader survival or outcomes like civil wars and coups. We suggest that this approach overlooks lower levels of instability and that isolating outcomes understates the likelihood that they are manifestations of similar structural determinants. We extend the notion of instability to encompass jointly but distinctly civil wars, coups, and riots. Our explanation focuses on the role of political institutions and the related ethnopolitical strife over state power. Using data from 1950 to 2007, we find that the three outcomes share some determinants such as a factional partial democracy and the exclusion from power of a large proportion of the population; the inverted U-shaped effect of political institutions is driven by a subset of semidemocracies; and there is a substitution relationship between civil wars and coups emerging from the composition of governing coalitions.

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  • Cristina Bodea & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Christian Houle, 2017. "Do Civil Wars, Coups and Riots Have the Same Structural Determinants?," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 537-561, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:43:y:2017:i:3:p:537-561
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2016.1188093
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    Cited by:

    1. H Zeynep Bulutgil & Neeraj Prasad, 2023. "Inequality, elections, and communal riots in India," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(4), pages 619-633, July.
    2. Salah Abosedra & Ali Fakih & Nathir Haimoun, 2020. "Ethnic Divisions And The Onset Of Civil Wars In Syria," Working Papers 1384, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Mar 2020.
    3. Hosam Ibrahim, 2019. "Political Violence and Youth Bulges," Working Papers 1310, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    4. Travis B. Curtice & Daniel Arnon, 2020. "Deterring threats and settling scores: How coups influence respect for physical integrity rights," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(6), pages 655-673, November.
    5. Christian Davenport, 2022. "Against polarization," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(4), pages 375-393, July.
    6. Ackermann, Klaus & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell, 2024. "Estimating the relationship between ethnic inequality, conflict and voter turnout in Africa using geocoded data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    7. Ly Slesman & Ali Kole & Rizgar Abdlkarim Abdlaziz & Ibrahim D. Raheem, 2024. "Taming the Tides of Internal Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Political Institutions and Natural Resources," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 16(2), pages 188-211, May.

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