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Estimating the relationship between ethnic inequality, conflict and voter turnout in Africa using geocoded data

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  • Ackermann, Klaus
  • Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa
  • Smyth, Russell

Abstract

To what extent is voter turnout influenced by ethnic inequality? We combine ethnolinguistic maps on sub-national locations of ethnic groups with night-time light satellite images to construct a dataset of ethnic inequality across sub-national locations in 24 African countries. Using election data from the constituency-level elections archive, we show that ethnic inequality is negatively associated with voter turnout. This relationship holds even after we control for endogeneity and geographic characteristics. We also construct a dataset of election conflict across the sub-national areas. We find that an increase in ethnic inequality is associated with an increase in conflict, which reduces voter turnout.

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  • Ackermann, Klaus & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell, 2024. "Estimating the relationship between ethnic inequality, conflict and voter turnout in Africa using geocoded data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:180:y:2024:i:c:s0305750x24001141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106644
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