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Globalization and Population: International Trade and the Demographic Transition

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  • John A. Doces

Abstract

I study the effect of international trade on birth rates across a large number of countries. A supply-demand model of the birth rate explains that a rise in international trade reduces the demand for children and encourages an earlier onset of the mortality revolution. These two effects caused by the rise of international trade lead to a lower birth rate. A time-series cross-section empirical analysis for a large sample of developed and developing countries exhibits that international trade has a statistically significant and inverse effect on the birth rate. The policy implications relating to trade, economic growth, and conflict are discussed in the conclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Doces, 2011. "Globalization and Population: International Trade and the Demographic Transition," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 127-146, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:37:y:2011:i:2:p:127-146
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2011.568838
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Easterlin, Richard A. & Crimmins, Eileen M., 1985. "The Fertility Revolution," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226180298, December.
    2. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 2004. "In Defense of Globalization: It Has a Human Face," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 94(6), pages 9-20, November-.
    3. Rowland, Donald T., 2003. "Demographic Methods and Concepts," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198752639.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Stefan Witthuhn, 2014. "Demographic Transition and Political Stability: Does Corruption Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5133, CESifo.
    2. Thomas Gries & Rainer Grundmann, 2014. "Trade and fertility in the developing world: the impact of trade and trade structure," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 1165-1186, October.
    3. Henrik Urdal & Chi Primus Che, 2013. "War and Gender Inequalities in Health: The Impact of Armed Conflict on Fertility and Maternal Mortality," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 489-510, September.

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