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Scapegoating Strategically: Reselection, Strategic Interaction, and the Diversionary Theory of War

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  • Stephen E. Gent

Abstract

Proponents of the diversionary theory of war have often argued that domestic reselection incentives induce office-seeking leaders to pursue aggressive foreign policies. To examine the relationship between strategic interaction and diversionary incentives, this article develops a two-state, two-sided incomplete information deterrence model with domestic reselection. According to the model, reselection mechanisms increase a leader's propensity to pursue aggressive foreign policies. Diversionary incentives in attacking states lead to an increase in war outcomes, while diversionary incentives in defending states may or may not increase the probability of war. The model also predicts that there will be nonmonotonic relationships between economic performance and war and between regime type and diversionary behavior, which may explain the discrepancies among many empirical tests of diversionary theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen E. Gent, 2009. "Scapegoating Strategically: Reselection, Strategic Interaction, and the Diversionary Theory of War," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 1-29, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:35:y:2009:i:1:p:1-29
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620802497048
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    Cited by:

    1. Dacey Raymond & Carlson Lisa J, 2011. "Aspects of Peace Economics," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-8, January.
    2. Libman, Alexander, 2009. "A small victorious war: political institutions and international conflict," MPRA Paper 17041, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Carla Martinez Machain & Leo Rosenberg, 2018. "Domestic diversion and strategic behavior by minority groups," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(5), pages 427-450, September.
    4. Dawud Ansari & Mariza Montes de Oca Leon & Helen Schlüter, 2021. "What Drives Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen? An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of Coalition Airstrikes, Houthi Attacks, and the Oil Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1959, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Ashley A.C. Hess, 2018. "Why Does North Korea Engage in Provocations?," Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, , vol. 5(1), pages 57-83, April.
    6. Carlson Lisa J. & Dacey Raymond, 2016. "A Note on a Methodological Issue Pertaining to the Empirical Specification of the Probability of Crisis Initiation," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 97-104, January.
    7. Sara McLaughlin Mitchell & Clayton L. Thyne, 2010. "Contentious Issues as Opportunities for Diversionary Behavior," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(5), pages 461-485, November.
    8. Libman Alexander, 2010. "A Small Victorious War: Domestic Revolution and International Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, December.

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