IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/eurpls/v31y2023i4p663-678.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic effects of isolating Russia from international trade due to its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Cristian Mardones

Abstract

The international community has reacted with surprising speed and unity to Russia’s ‘special military operation’ on Ukrainian territory through commercial and financial sanctions to achieve its economic isolation. This military action will change the relations between Russia and most world countries in ways that cannot yet be foreseen. This study analyzes the short-term effects of international trade interruptions on the economy, considering different isolation scenarios. The hypothetical extraction method and a multi-regional input-output model are used to simulate the economic effects on the production of 189 countries. The results show that the most affected country is Russia, with a drop in production of 10.1% in the scenario with sanctions from the European Union and 14.8% when the sanctions are also applied by Australia, Canada, Japan, United States, and the United Kingdom. The European countries with the greatest geographical proximity and strong trade flow with Russia suffer a significant drop in their production, including Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, and Poland. In Russia, the most affected economic sectors are Re-export & Re-import and Mining & Quarrying. Finally, the estimated impacts are a lower bound since the effects associated with financial sanctions, exchange rates, commodity prices, among others, are not considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristian Mardones, 2023. "Economic effects of isolating Russia from international trade due to its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 663-678, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurpls:v:31:y:2023:i:4:p:663-678
    DOI: 10.1080/09654313.2022.2079074
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09654313.2022.2079074
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09654313.2022.2079074?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martínez-García, Miguel Á. & Ramos-Carvajal, Carmen & Cámara, Ángeles, 2023. "Consequences of the energy measures derived from the war in Ukraine on the level of prices of EU countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    2. Tatiana Yu. Kudryavtseva & Angi E. Skhvediani & Maiia S. Leukhina & Alexandra O. Schneider, 2023. "A Fuzzy Model for Personnel Risk Analysis: Case of Russian-Finnish Export-Import Operations of Small and Medium Enterprises," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(3), pages 683-709.
    3. Damira Keček, 2023. "The Effects of Rising Energy Prices on Inflation in Croatia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-14, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurpls:v:31:y:2023:i:4:p:663-678. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CEPS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.