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Contrarian strategy and herding behaviour in the Chinese stock market

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  • Qiwei Chen
  • Xiuping Hua
  • Ying Jiang

Abstract

This paper investigates the profitability of several types of zero-cost price momentum and contrarian strategies in the Chinese stock market for the 1994–2013 period. Several distinct features of Chinese market are documented. We find that contrarian strategies that use Jegadeesh and Titman's (1993) method with weekly frequency are profitable. However, investment strategies based on the ‘nearness’ to of 52-week high or the recency of the 52-week high are not profitable. Our analysis also shows that contrarian profits are higher during the crisis period of 2008–2012. In addition, the return reversal of the winner and loser portfolios suggests that contrarian profits can be attributed to overreaction. Finally, we also find evidence of herding behaviour in the Chinese market; and the degree of herding behaviour is positively correlated with the profits of contrarian trading strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiwei Chen & Xiuping Hua & Ying Jiang, 2018. "Contrarian strategy and herding behaviour in the Chinese stock market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(16), pages 1552-1568, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:24:y:2018:i:16:p:1552-1568
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2015.1071715
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    Cited by:

    1. Neszveda, Gábor & Till, Gábor & Timár, Barnabás & Varga, Marcell, 2022. "Is short-term reversal driven by liquidity provision in emerging markets? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Nicholas Apergis & Vasilios Plakandaras & Ioannis Pragidis, 2022. "Industry momentum and reversals in stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3093-3138, July.
    3. Lin, Hung-Wen & Huang, Jing-Bo & Lin, Kun-Ben & Zhang, Joyce & Chen, Shu-Heng, 2020. "Which is the better fourth factor in China? Reversal or turnover?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Day, Min-Yuh & Ni, Yensen, 2023. "Do clean energy indices outperform using contrarian strategies based on contrarian trading rules?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    5. Zhang, Zhehao & Xing, Ruina & Liu, Jiajun & Shao, Yifei, 2023. "Correlation-based investment strategies: A comparison between Chinese and US stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    7. Zijian Shi & John Cartlidge, 2024. "Neural stochastic agent‐based limit order book simulation with neural point process and diffusion probabilistic model," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), June.
    8. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2024. "Price effects after one-day abnormal returns and crises in the stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    9. Shin Kimura & Tomoki Kitamura & Kunio Nakashima, 2023. "Investment risk-taking and benefit adequacy under automatic balancing mechanism in the Japanese public pension system," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, December.
    10. Huang, Chuangxia & Cai, Yaqian & Yang, Xiaoguang & Deng, Yanchen & Yang, Xin, 2023. "Laplacian-energy-like measure: Does it improve the Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation herding model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Xiong, Haifang & Yang, Gaofei & Wang, Zhiqiang, 2022. "Factor portfolio and target volatility management: An analysis of portfolio performance in the U.S. and China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 493-517.
    12. Lu, Shuai & Li, Shouwei, 2023. "Is institutional herding efficient? Evidence from an investment efficiency and informational network perspective," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    13. Liu, Chenye & Wu, Ying & Zhu, Dongming, 2022. "Price overreaction to up-limit events and revised momentum strategies in the Chinese stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Zijian Shi & John Cartlidge, 2023. "Neural Stochastic Agent-Based Limit Order Book Simulation: A Hybrid Methodology," Papers 2303.00080, arXiv.org.
    15. Kraemer, Moritz & Klusak, Patrycja & Vu, Huong, 2020. "First-mover disadvantage - The sovereign ratings mousetrap," CEPS Papers 26352, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    16. Xuebing Yang & Huilan Zhang, 2023. "Evolution of short-term contrarian profits," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(1), pages 1-27, July.
    17. Zijia Du & Alan Guoming Huang & Russ Wermers & Wenfeng Wu, 2022. "Language and Domain Specificity: A Chinese Financial Sentiment Dictionary [The effects of analyst-country institutions on biased research: Evidence from target prices]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(3), pages 673-719.
    18. Ho, Kung-Cheng & Yang, Lu & Luo, Sijia, 2022. "Information disclosure ratings and continuing overreaction: Evidence from the Chinese capital market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 638-656.
    19. Hui HONG & Shulin XU & Chien-Chiang LEE, 2020. "Investor Herding in the China Stock Market: An Examination of ChiNext," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 47-61, December.
    20. Xiong, Tao & Wang, Peng, 2023. "Institutional ownership and momentum in the Chinese A-share market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    21. Zhichao Lu & Peiyuan Pang & Yuhong Xu & Wenxin Zhang, 2024. "Portfolio Selection with Contrarian Strategy," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 1-28, June.
    22. Shen, YuJan & Shen, KuanFu, 2022. "Short-term contrarian profits and the disposition effect," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).

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