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The European sovereign debt market: from integration to segmentation

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  • Andrea Cipollini
  • Jerry Coakley
  • Hyunchul Lee

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of European Monetary Union (EMU) and of the recent financial and fiscal crisis on the integration of the European sovereign debt market using annual data 1992-2010. The panel regression dependent variable is time-varying market linkages computed from daily realised correlations between sovereign bond returns for 13 European economies and Germany. The results indicate that the elimination of currency risk following the implementation of EMU led to a fundamental and significant one-off increase in integration. The net impact of fiscal fundamentals was negligible up until 2009 as the markets seemed to be pricing in a potential bailout for member states in crisis and not fully pricing default risk. However, by 2010 the parlous situation of the peripheral economies lead the markets to price default risk and heralded a return to segmentation. The related increase in peripheral economy sovereign spreads has exacerbated the problem of fiscal imbalances which pose a major challenge for policy-makers.

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  • Andrea Cipollini & Jerry Coakley & Hyunchul Lee, 2015. "The European sovereign debt market: from integration to segmentation," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 111-128, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:21:y:2015:i:2:p:111-128
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2013.788535
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    3. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Jesper Hanson & Frank De Jong, 2018. "Cross‐Border Auction Cycle Effects of Sovereign Bond Issuance in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1401-1440, October.
    4. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2018. "Bid-to-cover and yield changes around public debt auctions in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 118-134.
    5. Harold Cole & Daniel Neuhann & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2016. "Information Spillovers in Sovereign Debt Markets," NBER Working Papers 22330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Cipollini, Andrea & Mikaliunaite, Ieva, 2020. "Macro-uncertainty and financial stress spillovers in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 546-558.
    7. Gupta, Priyanshi & Sehgal, Sanjay & Deisting, Florent, 2015. "Time-Varying Bond Market Integration in EMU," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 30(4), pages 708-760.
    8. Beetsma, Roel & de Jong, Frank & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper, 2016. "Domestic and Cross-Border Auction Cycle Effects of Sovereign Bond Issuance in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 11122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. J.J.M. Van Spronsen & R.M.W.J. Beetsma, 2022. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Auction Cycles of Eurozone Sovereign Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 169-202, February.
    10. Lee, Hyunchul & Cho, Seung Mo, 2017. "What drives dynamic comovements of stock markets in the Pacific Basin region?: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 314-327.
    11. Teixeira, João C.A. & Silva, Francisco J.F. & Ferreira, Manuel B.S. & Vieira, José A.C., 2018. "Sovereign credit rating determinants under financial crises," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-13.
    12. Griffin, Paul A. & Lont, David H., 2018. "Game changer? The impact of the VW emission-cheating scandal on the interrelation between large automakers’ equity and credit markets," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 179-196.
    13. Chao Liang & Yu Wei & Likun Lei & Feng Ma, 2022. "Global equity market volatility forecasting: New evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 594-609, January.
    14. Lee, Hyunchul, 2021. "Time-varying comovement of stock and treasury bond markets in Europe: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-20.
    15. Virk, Nader & Javed, Farrukh, 2017. "European equity market integration and joint relationship of conditional volatility and correlations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 53-77.
    16. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2018. "Debt Crisis in Europe (2001-2015): A Network General Equilibrium GVAR approach," MPRA Paper 89998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    18. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2018. "Debt dynamics in Europe: A Network General Equilibrium GVAR approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-202.
    19. Lee, Hyunchul & Kim, Heeho, 2020. "Time varying integration of European stock markets and monetary drivers," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 369-385.

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