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The explanatory and predictive power of different specifications of the Ohlson (1995) valuation models

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  • Michael McCrae
  • Henrik Nilsson

Abstract

Accounting-based valuation studies of US firms tend to support Ohlson's proposition that residual income and book value numbers have information content in explaining observed market values. But European evidence also suggests that the conservative/liberal orientation of accounting tradition can produce significant national differences in associations between accounting performance measures and stock prices - in earnings behaviour, coefficient values and parameter sensitivity. We address these issues from an equity valuation perspective using Swedish data to assess the additional information content of Ohlson's information dynamics and analysts' forecasts in relation to market valuations in a more conservative accounting environment than the US. The study compares the explanatory and predictive power of Ohlson's (1995) residual income model (RIV) with a linear information dynamics version (LIM) that specifies both residual income and non-accounting information as autoregressive processes. Both versions are applied with, and without, future performance expectations from non-accounting sources (analysts' forecasts). As with US evidence, we find that the inclusion of analysts' forecasts improves both (i) cross-sectional correlations with current prices for both RIV and LIM models and (ii) the predictive power of RIV models in relation to future annual cross-sectional stock returns. The contribution of linear information dynamics is significant but varies across approaches. We also find significant differences between Swedish and US firms in earnings behaviour and associations between accounting numbers and market equity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael McCrae & Henrik Nilsson, 2001. "The explanatory and predictive power of different specifications of the Ohlson (1995) valuation models," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 315-341.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:euract:v:10:y:2001:i:2:p:315-341
    DOI: 10.1080/713764600
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    1. Frankel, Richard & Lee, Charles M. C., 1998. "Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-319, June.
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    1. Olga Fullana & Mariano González & David Toscano, 2021. "The Role of Assumptions in Ohlson Model Performance: Lessons for Improving Equity-Value Modeling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-11, March.
    2. Anesten, Sebastian & Möller, Niclas & Skogsvik, Kenth, 2015. "The Accuracy of Parsimonious Equity Valuation Models - Empirical tests of the Dividend Discount, Residual Income and Abnormal Earnings Growth model," SSE Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2015:3, Stockholm School of Economics.
    3. Duran-Vazquez, Rocio & Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2011. "Valuation of Latin-American stock prices with alternative versions of the Ohlson model: An investigation of cointegration relationships with time-series and panel-data," MPRA Paper 32043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Atoche, Teresa duarte & Pérez lópez, José ángel & Camúñez ruiz, Jose antonio, 2012. "La relevancia de los gastos de I+D. Estudio empírico en el sector del automóvil," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 257-286.
    5. Denise A. Jones, 2018. "Using real options theory to explain patterns in the valuation of research and development expenditures," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 575-593, October.
    6. Shih-Cheng Lee & Chien-Ting Lin & Min-Teh Yu, 2013. "A fractional cointegration approach to testing the Ohlson accounting based valuation model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 535-547, October.
    7. Duran-Vazquez, Rocio & Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2011. "Valuación de acciones mexicanas mediante los modelos de Ohlson y Ohlson-Beta para firmas con ciclos de corto y largo plazos: Un análisis de cointegración [Valuation of Mexican stocks with the Olhso," MPRA Paper 33054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gishan Dissanaike & Kim†Hwa Lim, 2010. "The Sophisticated and the Simple: the Profitability of Contrarian Strategies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(2), pages 229-255, March.
    9. César Medeiros Cupertino & Paulo Roberto Barbosa Lustosa, 2004. "Ohlson Model Testability:Empirical Tests Findings," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 1(2), pages 136-150, June.
    10. Begoña Giner & Raul Iñiguez, 2006. "An empirical assessment of the Feltham-Ohlson models considering the sign of abnormal earnings," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 169-190.
    11. Karol Marek Klimczak & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2010. "Valuation Effects Of Accounting Information Availability," Post-Print hal-00481073, HAL.
    12. Ran Barniv & Mark Myring, 2006. "An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting‐Based Valuation Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7‐8), pages 1087-1109, September.
    13. Antonella Silvestri & Stefania Veltri, 2012. "A Test Of The Ohlson Model On The Italian Stock Exchange," Accounting & Taxation, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(1), pages 83-94.
    14. Arturo Leccadito & Stefania Veltri, 2015. "A regime switching Ohlson model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 2015-2035, September.

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