IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v9y2021i5p513-d508804.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Role of Assumptions in Ohlson Model Performance: Lessons for Improving Equity-Value Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Olga Fullana

    (Departament de Comptabilitat, Facultat d’Economía, Universitat de València, Av. Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain)

  • Mariano González

    (Departamento de Economía de la Empresa y Contabilidad, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 11, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

  • David Toscano

    (Departamento de Economía Financiera y Contabilidad, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales, Universidad de Huelva, Plaza de la Merced 11, 21002 Huelva, Spain)

Abstract

In this paper, we test whether the short-run econometric conditions for the basic assumptions of the Ohlson valuation model hold, and then we relate these results with the fulfillment of the short-run econometric conditions for this model to be effective. Better future modeling motivated us to analyze to what extent the assumptions involved in this seminal model are not good enough approximations to solve the firm valuation problem, causing poor model performance. The model is based on the well-known dividend discount model and the residual income valuation model, and it adds a linear information model, which is a time series model by nature. Therefore, we adopt the time series approach. In the presence of non-stationary variables, we focus our research on US-listed firms for which more than forty years of data with the required cointegration properties to use error correction models are available. The results show that the clean surplus relation assumption has no impact on model performance, while the unbiased accounting property assumption has an important effect on it. The results also emphasize the uselessness of forcing valuation models to match the value displacement property of dividends.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Fullana & Mariano González & David Toscano, 2021. "The Role of Assumptions in Ohlson Model Performance: Lessons for Improving Equity-Value Modeling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-11, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:5:p:513-:d:508804
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/5/513/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/5/513/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Frankel, Richard & Lee, Charles M. C., 1998. "Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-319, June.
    3. Abarbanell, J & Bernard, V, 2000. "Is the US stock market myopic?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 221-242.
    4. Skogsvik, Kenth & Juettner-Nauroth, Beate E., 2013. "A note on accounting conservatism in residual income and abnormal earnings growth equity valuation," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 70-80.
    5. William Rees & Aljosa Valentincic, 2013. "Dividend Irrelevance and Accounting Models of Value," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5-6), pages 646-672, June.
    6. John R. M. Hand & Wayne R. Landsman, 2005. "The Pricing of Dividends in Equity Valuation," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3-4), pages 435-469.
    7. Frankfurter, George M. & Wood, Bob Jr., 2002. "Dividend policy theories and their empirical tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 111-138.
    8. Dechow, Patricia M. & Hutton, Amy P. & Sloan, Richard G., 1999. "An empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model1," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-3), pages 1-34, January.
    9. Zhan Gao & James A. Ohlson & Adam J. Ostaszewski, 2013. "Dividend Policy Irrelevancy and the Construct of Earnings," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5-6), pages 673-694, June.
    10. John R. M. Hand & Wayne R. Landsman, 2005. "The Pricing of Dividends in Equity Valuation," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3‐4), pages 435-469, April.
    11. Michael McCrae & Henrik Nilsson, 2001. "The explanatory and predictive power of different specifications of the Ohlson (1995) valuation models," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 315-341.
    12. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    13. Francis, J & Olsson, P & Oswald, DR, 2000. "Comparing the accuracy and explainability of dividend, free cash flow, and abnormal earnings equity value estimates," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 45-70.
    14. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    15. Myron J. Gordon & Eli Shapiro, 1956. "Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 102-110, October.
    16. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
    17. Young†Soo Choi & John F. O'Hanlon & Peter F. Pope, 2006. "Conservative Accounting and Linear Information Valuation Models," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(1), pages 73-101, March.
    18. Ota, Koji, 2002. "A test of the Ohlson (1995) model: Empirical evidence from Japan," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 157-182.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heinrichs, Nicolas & Hess, Dieter & Homburg, Carsten & Lorenz, Michael & Sievers, Soenke, 2011. "Extended dividend, cash flow and residual income valuation models: Accounting for deviations from ideal conditions," CFR Working Papers 11-11, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    2. Kathryn E. Easterday & Pradyot K. Sen, 2023. "Another look at the dividend-price relationship in the accounting valuation framework," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 879-925, October.
    3. Lee, Shih-Cheng & Lin, Chien-Ting, 2010. "An accounting-based valuation approach to valuing corporate governance in Taiwan," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 47-60.
    4. Kuo, Chen-Yin, 2016. "Does the vector error correction model perform better than others in forecasting stock price? An application of residual income valuation theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 772-789.
    5. Arturo Leccadito & Stefania Veltri, 2015. "A regime switching Ohlson model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 2015-2035, September.
    6. Anesten, Sebastian & Möller, Niclas & Skogsvik, Kenth, 2015. "The Accuracy of Parsimonious Equity Valuation Models - Empirical tests of the Dividend Discount, Residual Income and Abnormal Earnings Growth model," SSE Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2015:3, Stockholm School of Economics.
    7. Echterling, F. & Eierle, B. & Ketterer, S., 2015. "A review of the literature on methods of computing the implied cost of capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 235-252.
    8. Shih-Cheng Lee & Chien-Ting Lin & Min-Teh Yu, 2013. "A fractional cointegration approach to testing the Ohlson accounting based valuation model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 535-547, October.
    9. Ran Barniv & Mark Myring, 2006. "An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting‐Based Valuation Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7‐8), pages 1087-1109, September.
    10. César Medeiros Cupertino & Paulo Roberto Barbosa Lustosa, 2004. "Ohlson Model Testability:Empirical Tests Findings," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 1(2), pages 136-150, June.
    11. Ahmed M. Abdalla & Colin D. B. Clubb, 2024. "Classification shifting using income-decreasing special items: measurement and valuation issues," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 2871-2926, September.
    12. Karel Janda, 2019. "Earnings Stability and Peer Company Selection for Multiple Based Indirect Valuation," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 37-75, February.
    13. Cong, Lin William & George, Nathan Darden & Wang, Guojun, 2023. "RIM-based value premium and factor pricing using value-price divergence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    14. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    15. Yun Shen & Andrew W. Stark, 2013. "Evaluating the effectiveness of model specifications and estimation approaches for empirical accounting-based valuation models," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 660-682, December.
    16. Igor Goncharov & David Veenman, 2014. "Stale and Scale Effects in Markets-Based Accounting Research: Evidence from the Valuation of Dividends," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 25-55, May.
    17. Misund, Bård & Asche, Frank & Osmundsen, Petter, 2008. "Industry upheaval and valuation: Empirical evidence from the international oil and gas industry," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 398-424, December.
    18. Harakeh, Mostafa & Lee, Edward & Walker, Martin, 2019. "The effect of information shocks on dividend payout and dividend value relevance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 82-96.
    19. Ed-Dafali, Slimane & Patel, Ritesh & Iqbal, Najaf, 2023. "A bibliometric review of dividend policy literature," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4142 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2009. "Splitting up value: A critical review of residual income theories," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 1-22, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:5:p:513-:d:508804. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.